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#227 – FTOPS-ing from the Bottom
[I wrote this before Event #9 was played on Wednesday night. There is a postscript including information from that event, but nothing, essentially, has changed in the substance of my observations.]
We’re now eight events into FTOPS V, a little more than halfway. I’ve rarely gone deep enough to be able to tell you much about the end of the events, but I have some observations to share.
ONLINE POKER – “ONLY MOSTLY DEAD”
To paraphrase Miracle Max, Billy Crystal’s character in the excellent movie, THE PRINCESS BRIDE, online poker must be “only mostly dead.” I’m just floored by the number of people who are entering these events – over 4,100 for the first event, over 4,300 for the Sunday $322 NLHE. They had over 1,000 for the HORSE and over 1,600 for PLHE.
This has led to some monster prize pools. First prize in Event #1 was nearly $150,000, and the winners of the Sunday and Monday events received $231,000 and $262,000. Total prizes for Events ##1-7 have been about $4.6 million, compared with the guarantee of $3.3 million. I thought there was a chance Event #12, which has a buy-in of $2,500 + $150 and will take place over two days, was going to lay an egg. Would 240 players pay that kind of money to play a two-day tournament online? Now I believe the tournament could get 400 entries, for another million-dollar prize pool. They had 1,282 entries on Monday night and the buy-in was $1,000 + $60.
This creates an interesting question for the Main Event: Is there a chance Full Tilt will hit its maximum entry limit of 5,000 players, fill the event, and have to close entries? The guarantee for the $500 + $35 event is $2 million, which assumes 4,000 players. Tilt had 4,100+ for the opening Wednesday night event and over 4,300 for the Sunday $300 + $22. That puts the possibility of 5,000 into play.
Granted, for bigger buy-in events, the guarantees tend to be exceeded by smaller percentages. And the SnG satellite structure is not as “friendly” as for the $300 + $22. For that event, the SnG satellite buy-in was $105 + $9 and three players out of nine got seats. For the Main Event, the buy-in is steeper, $150 + $10, and just two players at the table get seats. (The third-place finisher gets $280.)
So maybe they won’t have to close entries. But it’s not beyond the realm of possibility, and it will be a wild scene regardless.
MISERY LOVES COMPANY – ME, FTOPS, AND THE PROS
I have mentioned on several occasions that I have a horrible record in FTOPS. I’ve been keeping meticulous records of my online play going back only to last November, so I can only give you exact numbers from FTOPS III and FTOPS IV. For FTOPS I and II, I did not play many events – I didn’t start playing a lot of online tournaments or regularly playing the big ones on Full Tilt until I turned in the manuscript for the STRATEGY GUIDE last November. I finished in the low money in the LHE FTOPS II event and busted out of 5-8 other events in FTOPS I and II.
For FTOPS III and IV, I didn’t cash a single time, and my buy-ins totaled approximately $5,000.
I vowed to do better this time. I didn’t play well or last long in Events #1 or #2. At the last moment, I decided to play Event #3, PLHE, and I was glad I did, finishing 101st and earning $434.98. I played very well, built a big stack, lost almost all of it on K-K v. A-A about a hundred spots from the money, and rebuilt. I had 10 big blinds and lost a coin flip to go out when I did. It doesn’t come anywhere near my total losses for FTOPS, or even my losses for THIS FTOPS, but it was a start.
Since then, not so good. I played well in the rebuy event, but finished about 150 spots short of the money. As the tournament progressed, I just couldn’t find a way to accumulate chips, got down to 11 big blinds, and lost with a pocket pair against aces. In the Sunday event, I didn’t come close to making the first break, but I got waylaid, losing a bunch of chips with K-K vs. T-9 and going out when I flopped a set but my opponent called all-in with top pair and a flush draw. He was probably correct to call, though he hit a fluky runner-runner straight.
I vowed to stay out of big trouble by avoiding the $1,000 + $60 NLHE on Monday. I don’t have a big enough online bankroll, and I’m not “feeling it” online these days. So what happens? At the last minute, I let Clonie Gowen talk me into playing. When I say “let,” I mean I WANTED to be talked into it and encouraged her to do so. I lasted 46 minutes, making a mistake with top pair when a new player to the table who had already seemed extremely aggressive had an overpair to the board. (Clonie and I swapped 5% and she made the last position in the money, 144th, so I get $30, making it in effect my second “cash” for the last three FTOPS.)
I won my way into the Omaha event tonight and the LHE six-handed. I’m sure I’ll play the Main Event as well. I can’t, however, say I like my chances in any online tournament these days.
I take some solace – though no satisfaction – in the fact that the pros have NOT turned the FTOPS into their playground. To the contrary, we as a group are throwing the party. I think there was only one event in FTOPS IV where the pros as a whole were cash positive. The pros were very negative for the whole tournament and I’m not even sure if any SINGLE pro was cash positive.
The scorecard for FTOPS V is looking just as bad.
Event #1 – 27 pros paid $5,832 to enter. Six cashed (Paul Wolfe, Greg Mueller, Thomas Wahlroos, Chip Jett, Karina Jett, and John Cernuto) which is an excellent percentage. But the highest finish was Karina in 93rd, earning $957.95. The total money earned by the six was $2,765.56. So despite more than 20% of the pros cashing, the pros as a group lost over $3,000. This obviously points out the importance of not just making the money but getting to the final table. You can far exceed the norm – about 10% – in finishing in the money and lose a lot of money playing tournament poker if you don’t win or come close in some of your cashes.
Event # 2 – 17 pros entered the HORSE for total entry fees of $3,672. For a reason I haven’t learned, the number of entries paid was about half the usual amount. Only one pro, Berry Johnson, finished in the money, ending up in 33rd, earning $1,243.20. The pros lost over $2,400 on this one.
Event #3 – 19 pros entered the PLHE. Just two pros made the money, Stuart Paterson and me. Stu earned $267.68. I finished 101st, earning $434.98. Had I lasted one more hand, the payouts would have increased by $100. And if my A-J had hit, beating the 5-5 I was all-in against, maybe I could have won the thing and added over $61,000 to the ledger sheet for the Full Tilt pros. Entries cost $4,104. Payouts totaled $702.66, for another loss, this time $3,400.
Event #4 – 13 pros played the $500 + $35 PLO. Only one, Robert Mizrachi, who hosted the event and is the World Pot Limit Omaha Champion, finished in the money. (When there were 150 players remaining, all three remaining Full Tilt pros – Mizrachi, Eddy Scharf, and David Chiu – were at the same six-handed table.) Robert finished 36th, winning $1,244. Again, another negative result. Entries of $6,955, payouts of $1,244, net loss of $5,700.
Event #5 – 16 pros played in the $100 + $9 NLHE-rebuys. I don’t have information on the number of rebuys and add-ons but in talking with Chris Ferguson about the subject, he considers, for bankroll purposes, a rebuy tournament as costing four times the original buy-in. I played and rebought one time, and took advantage of the add-on option. Karina Jett busted out before the first break. I assume everyone else paid for the add-on. Let’s conservatively say the average for the sixteen pros was one-and-a-half rebuys and an add-on. That would be $5,744. Tooting my own horn in a very modest way, I outlasted 13 of the other pros, but busted short of the money. Only Andy Bloch and Allen Cunningham, who played at the same table for a long time, cashed. Andy finished 135th for $580.97, and Allen finished 74th for $738.11. Total payouts of just over $1,300 missed my estimate of the outlays by about $4,400.
Event #6 – 24 pros played the giant Sunday event, paying $7,728. I lasted a cool 22 minutes, losing a third of my stack with K-K against T-9 and the rest when I got all-in after the flop with a set and my opponent, who understandable called with top pair and a flush draw, made a fluky runner-runner double-inside straight. By the time half the field had been eliminated, there were still 2/3 of the Full Tilt pros remaining, mostly with above average chips. Still, just one pro finished within 200 places of the money, Barny Boatman. Barny finished 345th, worth $590.22.
This is where I get to repeat my Barny Boatman story. In the Mixed Hold ‘Em event where I made the final table – this is also where I get to mention THAT again, which is wonderful because this whole subject of my and other pros’ lousy performance in the FTOPS is a little demoralizing – Barny was moved to my table early on Day 1. The player next to me, who was asking about my relationships with various pros and his encounters with some of them, told me he know the new guy in seat five was “somebody” but he didn’t know who. I said, in a loud enough voice for Barny to hear. “He’s one of the members of the Hendon Mob. That’s Ram Vaswami!” We had a good laugh about that.
We probably had a better laugh than anyone had over the pros’ performance in Event #6. Event Barny, putting up $322 to receive $590, was essentially being paid babysitting wages, and he was the only one who got paid at all. This one cost the pros over $7,700, compared with $590 in payout(s).
Through six events, the pros were nearly $26,000 loser.
Event #7 – 21 pros entered the $1,000 + $60 NLHE and J.J. Liu finally staunched the collective bleeding, at least a little. Three pros cashed, including Clonie Gowen (who barely outlasted the bubble and has to pay me 5%) and Max Pescatori (77th, cashing $2,435.80). J.J. Liu, on a short stack seemingly forever, made it all the way to tenth place, earning $18,589. For the first time in FTOPS V (and maybe in FTOPS IV too), the pros were cash-positive. We paid a collective $22,260 to enter and cashed $22,685.40, for a cool profit of $425.40. Hooray for us! And thanks to J.J. Liu, who played great, despite being seven or eight months pregnant and carrying 18 non-cashing pros on her back, including me. I lasted just 45 minutes, though I was the FOURTH among the Full Tilt pros to bust. Don’t worry; I’m not bragging.
Event #8 – 11 pros entered the Omaha EOB event, including Chris Ferguson, who made it in via A $4 + $.40 supersatellite and a $50 + $5 turbo satellite. (But I’m still counting his buy-in as $200 + $16. It would be impossible to calculate all the satellite-related results for all the pros for the FTOPS. Especially because this is more an evaluation of how the pros are doing than an evaluation of who has how much money, calculating the buy-in vs. the cashouts is appropriate.) I once again can claim the dubious honor of being the highest finishing pro WHO DIDN’T CASH. The tournament paid 99 and I finished 163rd. That left just two pros for a shot at the money: Toto Leonidas and Chris Ferguson. Leonidas finished 100th, busting on the bubble. Chris carried the ball for the Full Tilt pros (and don’t think I didn’t let him know about THAT, talking on the phone with him about this tournament, the Turbo Hundo (where he finished third after I suggested to him that he play it), and his passing the $10,000 milestone in his experiments on bankroll management. He was near or in the chip lead for awhile before finishing 20th, earning $815.48. For HIM, it was a giant success. He started with zero dollars and carefully built. At the end of the Series, he was up to $2,400, and this amounts to about a third of that. But it was another losing night for the pros, about $1,500.
What can we learn from this?
1. The site isn’t rigged in favor of the pros.
2. Tournament poker is a hard, hard way to make a living. Through FTOPS #7, the pros had cashed 17 times out of 148 entries, which is a reasonable percentage. But none of those 17 was a final table. If, for example, J.J. Liu had finished fourth instead of tenth – just that one change of six places for one event out of 148 entries – she’d have made $91,000 instead of $18,000 and the 148 entries could boast a net gain of over $50,000 instead of a net loss of $25,000. As a strategic matter, this emphasizes the importance of taking the risks to build a stack, even at the potential cost of cashing less frequently. You could have easily added another dozen cashes to the pros’ performance without changing the overall outcome. At the same time, that would have been very impressive: cashing 20% of the time. But it wouldn’t have made the pros profitable and that’s the only statistic that really matters.
3. The pros are “due.” I know that doesn’t make statistical sense, but the pros are overall in the hunt. There just hasn’t been the statistically insignificant occasion where someone breaks through and makes one cash that redeems the whole series for all the pros. I’d love to be the redeemer, but don’t bet on it.
Postscript – I wrote most of this before FTOPS #9, the $300 + $22 with rebuys NLHE. Nothing in this tournament occurred to significantly change things. The only positive was that I didn’t play, which no doubt saved me a thousand bucks or so. Seventeen pros did enter and spent, I estimate, about $18,000. Four cashed – again, an outstanding percentage of those entering. In a tournament where the prize pool was over $1 million and first prize was over $200,000, the biggest cash among the Full Tilt pros was $4,527.90, by Paul Wasicka (27th) and John D’Agostino (30th). The four cashes totaled over $13,000, but means buy-ins and (estimated) rebuys and add-ons exceeded that amount by almost $5,000.
