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Posted by Editor | Filed under Howard Lederer, London 2008, WSOP-E 2008

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This image is time-stamped in my notes at 12:57 AM. The communal cards in the center are 7s-Js-Td. Howard Lederer, with a chip stack of more than 600,000, leans forward in his chair, his face impassive. Ivo Donev has only a small stack of blue chips remaining and he jingles them in one hand.

We can’t see their cards but Howard has ace-jack, for top pair. Ivo has Q-7, for third pair. The next two rounds will feature bets of 20,000 and Donev – who limped on the button, called a preflop raise, and led out on the flop – has two streets and three bets (60,000) left.

When you look at a moment frozen in time, you don’t know what’s going to happen next, even if it’s already happened. Howard’s got top pair against third pair and it seems overwhelmingly likely that Donev will call at least the 40,000 in bets remaining on the turn and river and at some point put in his last 20,000. After all, even though Howard raised, Ivo led out on the flop.

And if Howard wins the hand, there is no guarantee that he is going to win the bracelet. Sherkhan Farnood is a skilled, crafty player and had some near misses in big events over the past few years. But Lederer knows his opponent well and would start a heads-up session with an approximate 3-to-1 chip lead. With no disrespect to Sherkhan, you have to put Howard’s chances at 75% and maybe higher.

But the turn card was another seven, giving Donev trip sevens. He checked, Howard bet 20,000, Donev raised to 40,000, and Howard reraised to 60,000, which put Donev all-in. So instead of Ivo Donev being out of the tournament, he has 180,000 chips. Two hands of hold ‘em later, Howard lost another 85,000 chips to Ivo when they both had trip queens but the Austrian chess master had a better kicker.

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