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This is my third in a series of three profiles of Full Tilt’s final table trio. See also my profiles of Craig Marquis and Scott Montgomery. Also, check out the contests accompanying the Marquis profile – Cash Game Killer - and the Montgomery profile – Tournament Star - as well as the third contest, the one accompanying Kelly Kim’s profile, Enigma. That should be posted later tonight or tomorrow.

Kelly Kim almost had me fooled.

When I visited him in August, he was equal parts outgoing host and reserved – even a little evasive – interview subject. But now I think I understand a little about who Kelly Kim is and how, despite the shortest stack at the final table, he could win.

Let’s start with what I know for sure, which ain’t much:

Kelly Kim is 31 years old.

Kelly Kim lives in Whittier, California, though he spends nearly half the year in Las Vegas, living in a house he shares with several friends.

Kelly Kim is a professional gambler.

This is where the trail becomes tangled. Trying to infere and deduce things about Kim is an exercise in frustration and misdirection. First, there the house. It’s lavish and loaded with everything – tech toys, people, food, drinks. When I was there, the place looked like a party waiting to happen. OK, so Kelly Kim’s a partying kind of guy, right?

Then there’s his appearance and bearing. His face is wide but his eyes are narrow and piercing. He speaks softly and does not volunteer much information. Particularly because of his wide, square face, he initially strikes you as “heavy.” But then, after you shake his hand, see him move, and hear his voice, the impression is transformed to “solid.”

So what’s the picture look like now? Hard-living, beefy, inscrutable Asian guy, quietly boring a hole in you with his eyes in a somewhat-badass way.

Not even close.

Turns out he’s a brainiac who majored in economics and initially followed a traditional path toward success and security in Corporate America. The other “bad boys” he lives with are fellow geeks and brainos, mostly friends from college.

They all followed the road to respectability after college, trying to make their families proud, justifying the expense and sacrifice that went into their upbringing and education, and grabbing their piece of the American Dream with their brains and hard work.

The whole group took a detour, and that’s where the path I’m following in seach of Kelly Kim grows cold.

Kim admits to being a professional gambler, a respectable profession only for the last several years, though perfectly legal where he practices it in Vegas. It’s fair to say that most of his roommates are in the same line of work.

Now we’re at a dead end. I can navigate only by “the stars” – in this case the legendary professional gamblers I’ve been lucky enough to learn about and befriend over the past four years. Because even if gambling is legal and respectable, its smartest practitioners have always depended on keeping their heads down and their names out of the news.

There was a story of a family in the backwoods of Kentucky that had three generations born without fingerprints. Their fingertips were smooth and featureless, even under a magnifying glass. Someone asked the local sheriff if this posed a particular law enforcement problem. He shook his head. “Nah. If someone ever commits a crime in these parts and there are no fingerprints, we’ll know exactly who did it.”

So no one will ever confirm or deny anything about Kelly Kim’s gambling activities. Did he make a bunch of money betting sports and get arrested under suspicion that the complex operation was mistaken for illegal bookmaking? No, wait. That was Team Full Tilt’s Howard Lederer.

Did he get barred once by Harrah’s for winning too many slot machine jackpots? Never mind, that was Full Tilt pro Richard “Quiet Lion” Brodie.

Did he don disguises, make big scores at blackjack, and get arrested for eating at the Golden Nugget buffet? My mistake, that was Team Full Tilt’s Andy Bloch.

But you’re getting the idea, right? That’s what a real professional gambler does: get the best of it against The Man while dodging notice.

When you think of it, big-time tournament poker is an odd place for a person on such a career trajectory. Making the final table of the World Series of Poker Main Event is, you have to admit, an especially conspicuous means of hiding in plain sight.

WHY HE’LL WIN

I’ve concluded each of my final-table-trio profiles with this section and, admittedly, the odds against Kelly Kim are significant.

But not insurmountable. Even though he is by far the shortest stack at 2.6 million chips, there are scenarios from which he can move up. First, if someone jumps the gun and starts playing with a death wish, he can stay out of their way and let them bust or bust someone else and play Empty Seat to move up a place or two. (Sitting on his hands could earn him another $386k if that happens, or $869k if it’s a double suicide.)

Second, if he picks up a big hand right away, a single double-up will make a big difference. He’ll still be the shortest stack at the table and will still have half (or less) of the next four shortest stacks (unless he doubles up on one of them). But he’ll move up from 10 BB to over 20 BB. This would give him the luxury of waiting for another big hand and even putting pressure on the blinds of the four 10-12 million-chip-stacks.

Third, his initial all-in will pose a risk to half the table. For instance, Kelly will be in the cut-off for Craig Marquis’s big blind. They were near the end of level 33 when play broke – 120k-240k/30k ante. If Kim gets a shot at Craig’s blind and moves on him (and small blind Dennis Phillips doesn’t have a big hand), Craig has a tough decision. There will be 3.2 million in the pot and it will cost him 2.3 million to call. He’s not more than a 3-2 dog holding a lot of hands, but it also means he has to put 25% of his chips at risk right away. If he doesn’t have at least one big card, he may have to fold. And with something like K-5, he may feel he has to call. Craig Marquis has 10.2 million chips, and three others at the table have 10-12.5 million.

Naturally, luck will have to play a role with Kelly this short. Obviuosly, picking up aces or kings would be magical. Likewise, if he moves with something like A-3 and gets called by K-5, he’s still gotta win a 60-40.

I expect, however, that Kelly will pick his spot correctly. His professional life is dedicated to getting the best of it, or at least getting his money in smart. I trust he’ll make that calculation correctly.

If he makes the right move during the first dozen or so hands, he needs something else good to happen for him, but the odds will be more forgiving. If he doubles up, he’s a big threat to those four 10-12.5 million stacks. It’s in his interest for the table to play big-pot poker so, even if he doubles up, expect to see all his chips going in preflop for awhile. If some other players jump the fence, like last year, or everyone goes the other way and starts being TOO patient, he may have the opportunity to chip up by bossing the table with the shortest stack (a/k/a the least to lose). If that proves to be contageous – say he doubles up and then moves all-in for 25 BB twice in the next round – the bigger stacks may feel they’re losing their ability to steal.

They might start making big opening raises, like Jerry Yang did in 2007. That’s perfect for Kim because he doesn’t have the chips to play flops. It’s now easier for him to get his doubled-up stack all-in preflop as well as more likely to force a big confrontation between two other players, which may allow him to score more money simply by holding their coats.

If Kelly Kim wins, it will be because he makes very smart moves based on hand values, position, blind and ante levels, and opposing stacks – and gets at least one lucky break. The poker world will not only say that Kelly can walk on water, but they’ll invoke the image of another unreadable numbers savant nicknamed “Jesus.”

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One Response to “#577 – World Series Final Table Profile #3 – Kelly Kim – Enigma”

1. Larry Says:
   October 30th, 2008 at 7:18 pm

   I think they are going to redraw again before the final table so Kelly does not know where he is sitting. It sounds kind of strange to redraw again after they did it when they got to 10, but think about it….the players would have had 3 months to do all kinds of math homework on when to shove or call with the known stack sizes and positions.

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