#833 – 2009 WSOP #91 – Seen & Heard #26 – The Secret to Phil Ivey, Part I

Even though I work for Full Tilt, I have no advantage over any other media in covering Phil Ivey. He has no interest in publicity or promotion. Period.

Still, I’ve been around poker for long enough to have know some things. Phil is a mystery to almost everyone and, I suppose, he’s still something of a mystery to me. But some of his most valuable secrets are hiding in plain sight.

At no-limit hold ‘em, Ivey is an expert in the art and science of bet-sizing. When it comes to raises and reraises, Ivey usually has the advantage in figuring how to make THE OTHER GUY commit to the pot before he himself has to commit. As a practical matter, he arranges it so all he’s risking is the amount of his bet, but if his opponent wants to play with him, the opponent’s entire stack is at risk.

In this regard, Phil Ivey has a great table draw for today. He is at Table #2, Seat 1. He has Jeff Shulman to his left, who has a similar-sized stack. To his immediate right (on the other side of the dealer) in Seat 9 is Jordan Smith, who has 4.51M chips but is a particularly dangerous player, already with one bracelet on this trip. To Smith’s right in Seat 8 is Darvin Moon, the chip leader. This seems like a good set-up for Phil.

I don’t know a lot about Jeff Shulman’s particular style, but I don’t imagine that he’s going to target Ivey, just because he’s the player to his immediate right, as the guy he wants to pressure to get more chips. If he does, or Phil decides Shulman is simply playing to survive, he might even limp into some pots, hoping Jeff will raise him. This would allow Ivey to reverse the positions, putting in the substantial reraise that requires Jeff Shulman to commit his 10 million chips if he wants to play the hand.

I don’t expect Shulman to instigate Ivey in this way, or Ivey to “set up” the player to his left. On the other hand, Phil is in great position to leverage his stack against Jordan Smith and especially against Darvin Moon, two to his right. If Moon raises, Ivey can size a reraise (with a great hand or with nothing) to force Moon to give up the hand or play for Phil’s whole stack of 11 million.

Phil Ivey won’t move all-in over Moon. Because then Moon has the advantage of being able to decide to play for the size of his raise or Ivey’s whole stack. Phil will make the re-raise in an amount that allows him enough chips to fold and get away, but would require a fourth bet by Moon declaring, in effect, that they’ll play the pot for 11 million chips.

Phil Ivey’s play doesn’t commit him; he can fold if he was bluffing (or he thinks he’s up against an even bigger hand than his) and Darvin Moon moves all-in and lose just the amount of the reraise.

This is an incredibly powerful advantage. It means that Phil Ivey could risk, say 1.5 million chips with a raise or reraise. Maybe he has nothing and maybe he has the nuts. If an opponent folds, Phil wins the blinds, antes, and bets from the previous action – probably at least a million chips. For an opponent to push the action, however, it’s going to cost all his/Ivey’s chips. That means Phil can lose 1.5 million, but he can win his opponent’s entire stack, or double up against a bigger stack.

This could be the greatest strength of Ivey’s game. It constantly puts his opponents on the spot, while putting a reasonable (though still substantial) number of his own chips at risk. Combined with his great ability to read opponents, it gives him a devastating advantage. The only problem is if he runs into big hands several times in a row. I suspect that’s how Phil went from 1.2 million chips to 200,000 in the first hour of play a few days back.

As long as Ivey has 50 big blinds are so, he can play this game. Other than by having big cards, there’s not much his opponents can do.

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