FULL TILT POKER BLOG

#839 – 2009 WSOP Revisted #2 – Poker 1 Recession 0

Posted by Editor | Filed under Uncategorized

As I was preparing the blog based on my interview with Jeffrey Pollack, I decided to compare player–participation numbers between the 2009 World Series and similar numbers from the year before. Although the year-over-year numbers are equivocal, it was a miracle in this economy that poker has retained its strength of the past several years. As Pollack said during our conversation, “The economy had no effect.”

When you compare the numbers with Las Vegas’ year-to-year comparisons for casino profits, room occupancy, etc, it’s amazing that the 2009 series numbers were anywhere near those of 2008.

There were fifty-seven bracelet events in 2009. We can exclude fourteen from comparison because there wasn’t a similar event (i.e., same form of poker, same buy-in) in 2008. For example, one of the great successes of 2009 was the Economic Stimulus event which, with a $1,000 buy-in, attracted 6,012 players. The closest equivalent was the initial $1,500 NLHE event of 2008, spread over two starting days, which drew 3,939. In several instances, negative comparisons were clearly the result of increased buy-ins in 2009. Razz declined from 453 in 2008 to 315, but the buy-in increased from $1,500 to $2,500. The SEOB Championship in 2008 was a $5,000 event in 2008 and had 261 entries. There were 97 fewer entries in 2009, but the buy-in doubled.

LOW BUY-IN NLHE EVENTS WERE STRONG

In the large-field NLHE events, participation generally stayed the same or increased in 2009. In both years, the $1,500 NLHE events generally attracted 2,600-2,800 players. The numbers were actually a little higher in 2009, but 2009 also had the lowest-attendance event of the two years. (There were seven of these large-field $1,500 events in 2009.)

In the $1,500 NLHE 6-handed event, participation rose nearly 20%, from 1,236 in 2008 to 1,459 in 2009.

The three $2,000 NLHE events were generally better attended in 2009. In 2009, the Monday event drew 1,534 players and a pair of Thursday events drew 1,646 and 1,695. Although a 2008 Friday event had 2,317 starters, the other two events drew 1,593 on a Wednesday and 1,344 on a Thursday. The Senior Championship increased more than 20%, while the Ladies Championship declined 10%. The $500 Casino Employee event also declined, but by just 7% and that could be due to its placement on the schedule.

HIGHER PRICE-POINT NLHE WERE WEAKER – EXCEPT 6-HANDED

There were five events in this category in 2009, with buy-ins of $2,500-5,000. As you would expect in this economy, player participation showed less strength in more expensive events. The $2,500 and $5,000 full-ring events suffered declines of 20% and 10% respectively, and the $5,000 Shootout also declined by 20%.

Interestingly, this trend did not hold true for 6-handed events. Event #19, $2,500 NLHE 6-handed, rose about 5%, from to 1,068 from 1,012. The $5,000 NLHE 6-handed, Event #56, was a monster with entries increasing 15%, from 805 to 928. Both events were held on weekdays near the end of the Series. Because the $1,500 6-handed NLHE also increased year-to-year by 20% (with the events starting on weekdays both years), this suggests emerging strength in short-handed poker.

DISCOUNTING NEGATIVE RESULTS FOR NON-ECONOMIC REASONS

In seven 2009 events, participation was down significantly, but could be explained by reasons having nothing to do with the economy. The four LHE events were all down significantly in 2009. Both years had a Friday $1,500 event; entries fell from 883 to 643. The decline in the $1,500 Shootout was even greater, 571 vs. 823 – and 2009 actually BENEFITED in the comparison because this year the event was held on a Friday. The $10,000 Championship was contested by 185 players, compared with 218 in 2008. The only NLHE event not decimated in 2009 was the $2,000 buy-in, which declined from 479 to 446, but which also benefited in 2009 by being moved from Thursday to Friday.

These numbers are not indicative of an economic reversal. The long-term trend has been against LHE. Attendance in the $1,500 LHE has now declined four years in a row.(It’s too simple to attribute this decline entirely to a preference for NLHE. Although some other forms of limit poker have been declining, others have showed strength. The negative comparisons are mostly in the lower buy-ins, and could be the result of an unappealing structure, which, critics claim, makes the initial levels a waste of time and the later levels a crapshoot.)

Three other events declined significantly in 2009 for another non-economic reason. ESPN is maintaining the same number of hours of coverage but decided for 2009 to televise fewer events. ESPN did not cover the final tables for Events #40, #45, and #49 in 2009, after televising their equivalants were televised in 2008. The declines for those events in 2009 were huge. The PLO Championship declined from 381 to 295. The PLHE Championship declined from 352 to 275. The biggest decline, of course, was in the $50K HORSE, which suffered a 50% decline in entries after ESPN decided not to broadcast it for 2009.

This leaves us with seventeen events. In five, attendance was exactly the same. In another five, attendance increased. In the remaining seven, attendance was down but only slightly (and in the instance of the Main Event should have increased).

EVENTS WHERE ENTRIES STAYED THE SAME

In both 2008 and 2009, the $1,500 NLHE Shootout (1,000 entries) and $10,000 Heads-Up Championship (256 entries) sold out. Entries in the $10,000 Mixed Event (194 vs. 192), $2,500 PLHE-PLO (453 vs. 457), and $2,500 OEOB-SEOB (376 vs. 388) were essentially unchanged.

EVENTS IN WHICH ENTRIES INCREASED IN 2009

In five events, entries increased 5%-20%. During the first week of the 2009 Series entries in $1,500 OEOB and PLO increased from 6%-10%, though part of the OEOB increase could be because that was the first $1,500 event and it was on a Friday. On the same day that entries were down 10% in the noon event ($1,500 PLHE), in the $3,000 HORSE, entries rose from 414 to 452. Near the end of the Series, $1,500 PLOEOB and $2,500 Triple-Draw increased by 7%-10%. Combined with a consistently strong performance of the big-field NLHE events and higher buy-in 6-handed events, the general daily activity at the Series in 2009 was robust.

EVENTS IN WHICH ENTRIES DECLINED IN 2009

In seven events, there were declines similar in size to the increases reported in the previous paragraph. Two of the declines were in $10,000 Championships, a 10% decline in the Stud Championship and a 20% decline in the OEOB Championship. Most of the other events with declines were low buy-in limit events: $1,500 Stud (359 on a Saturday vs. 381 on a Wednesday), $1,500 HORSE (a very modest drop from 805 to 770) and $1,500 SEOB (467 vs. 543). The other preliminary event with a decline was the $1,500 PLHE, in which entries dropped from 713 to 633.

The analysis to this point accounts for 56 of the 57 events. That leaves the Main Event.

In the Main Event, entries declined by about 5%, from 6,844 to 6,494. Because of the overwhelming number of players who tried to register after play began on Day 1-D, this has to be regarded, at most, as a problem in communication or contingency planning. In this economy, a 5% decline in anything having to do with Las Vegas, casinos, or tourism would be considered a significant accomplishment. Looking only at player demand, the entries for the 2009 Main Event could have easily exceeded 2008.

The same expectations applied for the entire World Series. Even coming close to the numbers of 2008 would be considered a success. Although several events were not comparable and in some there were non-economic reasons for declines, the 2009 World Series of Poker was very well attended. Even without discounting for the economic slump, the entries numbers speak well of poker’s continuing vitality.

Popularity: 1% [?]

Be Sociable, Share!