FULL TILT POKER BLOG

#909 – Learned All I Needed During the First Minute

Posted by Editor | Filed under Uncategorized

It took more than four months and nearly 7,000 opponents, but I figured out who was going to win the heads-up match for the 2009 WSOP Main Event Championship between Joe Cada and Darvin Moon in less than a minute. Way less than a minute, in fact. The giveaway was the first action by the first player on the first hand.

Moon called.

Action started at at 10:37 PM, with 47:49 left in the 500k-1m/150k ante level. Joe Cada had approximately 136m in chips and Darvin Moon had just under 59m. On the first hand, Moon had the small blind and the button, and therefore the first action before the flop. (Remember, in heads-up, the small blind has the button and acts first before the blind but the other player, in the big blind, acts first for the remainder of the hand.)

Darvin Moon called from the small blind.

Maybe I’m making too big a deal of this, but I’ve never had an unknown opponent merely limp on the button and turn out to be a good heads-up player. Granted, Darvin didn’t do this too often but that he would do it at all points the match in a very specific direction.

It suggests the players are going to see a lot of flops and make escalating betting decisions with each succeeding street. (That generally turned out to be the case.) I know Joe Cada is just a 21 year-old, but the impression I’ve gotten is that he plays a lot online, and has picked up the game very fast. (That also generally turned out to be true, though he also demonstrated he has plenty to learn.) And people at the press conference today told me they came away with the impression that Cada seemed the more learned and experienced player, and Moon might not have necessarily disagreed.

In general, the more experience you have, the smaller you want the pots to start. You want the hands to go deeper, where the consequences of errors of inexperience can be magnified. According to this concept, which may or may not in fact describe these competitors accurately, Joe Cada should want to see flops and take advantage of Darvin Moon in the betting on the turn and the river. Moon, in contrast, should concentrate his action on the early part of the hand, where (a) you can’t be too much of an underdog and, for the most part, not make too huge of a mistake; and (b) you can take advantage of your opponent’s opinion that he can outplay you later in the hand by getting him to fold when you force the action at the outset.

So if Moon was willing to start the match by saying, in effect, “Let’s see who’s better at making tough decisions on the turn and river,” either he was doomed, or a grossly misunderstood the dynamic.

Here’s what I said about Moon on p.29 of my notebook: “#1 – Darvin – calls button. Already lost.”

I’ll agree with you that I didn’t base that prediction – “already lost” – on very much information and it would be unreasonable to attach a great deal of importance to such a quick prediction, but that’s what I wrote.

And over the next two hours and forty minutes, it was pretty much validated.

That said, Darvin Moon did some great things and ultimately put himself in position to win – and it happened when he played the way the amateur should play against a pro. And he put on a great show, as, obviously, did Joe Cada. It will make great TV on ESPN on Tuesday night.

To be continued ….

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