FULL TILT POKER BLOG

#910 – The Over-Under Was Almost One

Posted by Editor | Filed under Uncategorized

Shortly before final-table heads-up play began last night between Joe Cada and Darvin Moon, there was considerable speculation in press row about how long the heads-up match would last. Sorry, but by the end of a poker tournament, the media almost always wants it to end fast. Even though the players had 60-135 big blinds, I did not think we were looking at a long heads-up match.

When I said that, I was talking about 25-80 hands. (It actually went 87 hands, according to PokerNews.com, to which I always refer to when looking for hand-by-hand information. In fact, because I may have numbered the hands incorrectly, I’ll refer to their hand numbers, ##277-364.) I was correct that it went fast – it almost ended in one hand.

Even though Darvin Moon won the hand (and a nice pot on the second hand as well) I stood by my initial prediction that Moon was finished as soon as he started based on his heads-up strategy.

As we learned after the hand (but you will learn immediately on ESPN tonight), Darvin Moon had pocket queens and Joe Cada had pocket nines. (This is actually part of an argument I will make in a later post about how TV poker emphasizes the wrong things and certain poker hands are much more exciting when you CAN’T see the whole cards.)

Remember my description from the previous post? Moon called from the small blind (with pocket queens!), and then Cada raised to $3.5 million (with pocket nines). Moon just called (with pocket queens!!).

What is Moon trying to do? Was he trying to trap with pocket queens? Either Darvin didn’t know what he was trying to do (which is bad), or he is trying to trap (which is not a good idea, especially on the first hand), or he was trapping but not in a particularly effective manner. Let’s consider all three possibilities as the hand played out. (There is a fourth possibility that I will seriously raise near the end of this post: that Darvin Moon was so clever that I couldn’t keep up with him, Joe Cada couldn’t keep up with him, and few top pros would be able to consistently keep up with him.)

Initially, there are good reasons for Moon not to trap, especially on the opening hand. It’s nice to win the first pot, get rid of the butterflies, and start on the offensive. More important, however, trapping head-up with a big pair is just not a good strategy. Players pursue weaker hands heads-up, so you can bet relatively weak hands for value. Therefore, you MUST bet STRONG hands for value.

If we follow the assumption that Moon, although much older, is the amateur and Joe Cada is the hotshot young pro, Darvin should be pushing the action early in the hand. What better time to start than the first hand and what better hand to do it with than with pocket queens?

Perhaps there is a division of opinion on this but I think trapping with big pairs heads-up is almost always a mistake. The hand you will most likely beat with pocket queens is a single, lower pair. If you let an opponent in cheap, if he makes less than a single lower pair, you lose value. And if he makes more than a single lower pair, you could potentially lose everything with your “trap”. That seems like a pretty narrow set of circumstances in which trapping with a big pair (especially when it’s not aces) works.

Here’s how the rest of the hand played.

Moon called on the button, Cada raised to 3.5 million, and Moon called. The flop was 3s-Ks-2d. Cada bet out 3.5 million, Moon raised to 10 million and Cada called. The turn was the ace of diamonds. Cada checked, Moon bet 10 million, and Cada quickly called. The river was the king of clubs and both players checked. Moon took it with his higher pocket pair.

With that board, Moon made more off that hand than I would have thought possible. But it doesn’t make his choices RIGHT. Why did he bet the turn? The only value pocket queens had on the turn was as a bluff, and I don’t think Moon was bluffing. It seems incredibly unlikely he was ahead: he was behind any ace, any king, and pocket deuces and pocket threes. Because draws were almost non-existent, the only other hand Joe could have is a lower pocket pair. No better hand than pocket queens would conceivably fold. And would something worse than pocket queens predictably CALL a bet with that board and that action? As Chris Ferguson said to me, “When you bet, only two good things can happen. You can get a better hand to fold or a worse hand to call.”

Darvin Moon is either a far more sophisticated player than we can comprehend or it’s a crazy miracle that he made it to the final table. He is either (a) not thinking AT ALL about why his opponent is still in the hand, or (b) he is thinking so many levels deep that Chris Ferguson would have trouble keeping up.

When Joe Cada called the 10 million on the turn, what was HE thinking? If we stereotype him as a hotshot young pro, we can presume some things that probably aren’t far from the truth. He knows his pocket nines can’t beat anything but a bluff. If he is thinking AT ALL about why his opponent is in the hand, he must be thinking that Moon was bluffing. That can be the only reason for his call.

The strange thing – which makes me and Joe look right but either lose chips (Joe) or sound silly (me) – is that Joe and I were probably right. Darvin Moon was bluffing with his queens. He just didn’t know he was bluffing, and he was bluffing with the best hand.

Could Darvin Moon be so smart and so clever that he knew, on the very first hand heads-up, that Cada would call big raises with nothing because he presumed Moon would be bluffing? If so, that would be incredibly impressive of Darvin. You wouldn’t imagine that pocket queens would have any value on a board of 3-K-2-A except as a bluff that is better than the “nothing” your opponent calls with, knowing that you are bluffing.

Was Darvin Moon a genius or a rank amateur? You decide.

The river was another king and both players checked. In a ridiculously weird hand this was a ridiculously weird river, and both checks, because they were completely reasonable, made no sense. Both players were losing to an opponent with a single king. That didn’t stop Moon from betting 10 million on the turn and Cada from calling. Why did these guys get spooked by the second king on the river?

Darvin Moon won the pot and more chips than if I had been directing his play. But Joe Cada sent an unbelievably clear message in that first hand: I ALWAYS THINK YOU ARE BLUFFING. Moon had to be a genius to play the hand this way if he believed Cada was thinking that. But if he was a genius, wouldn’t he now have to take into account that Cada will always play as if Moon is bluffing, and therefore not bluff?

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