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All tournament situations are not created equal. For example, you raise with As-Js and an opponent moves all-in. Do you call?

Your answer depends on many, many factors:  your stack size, your opponent’s stack size, whether this would put you all-in, the number of chips already in the pot, the number of chips to call, your opponent’s position at the table, your position at the table, how your opponent plays, and how you think your opponent thinks you play. And those are just the ones off the top of my head. For me, the starting point (and usually most decisive point) is the pot odds. How big of a pot will I win versus the cost to call? And how does that ratio compare with my estimate of my chances of winning the hand?

The pot-odds calculation is objective, but your likelihood of winning the hand with As-Js is subjective. If your opponent has 5c-5d, you are 49% to win or tie. If your opponent has Qc-Qd, you are 32%. If your opponent is 7h-6h, you are 61%. If your opponent has Ad-Qc, you are 32%. To make your calculation, you have to figure your opponent’s range of hands, likelihood of having each of those hands, and develop a “blended” likelihood of winning.

[This bracketed material was not in the original post. The first paragraph after this one is incorrect. Thanks to the reader who pointed that out, and see the comments about it below. I work better off percentages than odds, but I put in the wrong "pot percentage". If you are 40% to win, you calculate the size of bet that you are priced to call from the TOTAL VALUE of the pot, INCLUDING the chips from your call. So if there is 12,000 in the pot and you are deciding whether to call 8,000, you are paying 40% of the total value of the pot (which is 20,000, including your 8,000 all-in call). Therefore, you need to be greater than 40% to win such a hand to get value by calling.]

Let’s say you conclude you are 40% and there is 12,000 in the pot before you call. If the cost to call is 4,800 or less, the pot is laying you the right odds to call. If the amount is close, the calculation could tip one way or another based on additional factors, especially because that 40% number was just an estimate.

How much weight, if any, should you give to the stage of the tournament? Specifically, should you take the “correct” pot odds when you are an underdog in the hand (as you would be with A–J in this example) when it involves all your chips? In other words, should you place a premium on your survival in the tournament?

Just about everybody says yes. If there is any difference of opinion, it is how strongly they say it. For instance, I know that, at least early in a tournament, Chris Ferguson will in all his chips with even a small edge in pot odds. Mike Matusow, on the other hand, prides himself in being able to lay down very high quality hands to keep from going broke. At the farthest end is Phil Hellmuth, who for a year believed he should fold pocket aces before the flop because he didn’t want to be “only 83%” to continue in the tournament.

Very little has been written or discussed about this subject. You almost never read about players talking, other than very generally, about the value they place on preservation. But it’s clear to me that there are a wide variety of answers among players, some of which I found shocking. Because I’ve been around high-level poker for five years, I’ve seen a lot of interesting hands and had the opportunity to talk with many of the most successful players. On this issue, (i.e., preservation, survival, risk aversion, discounting pot odds, etc.), I had to comb the limits of my memory, my notes, my archives, and my hard drives.

If you want to succeed in tournament poker, however, understanding this concept is vital. Let’s start the discussion.

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Permalink | December 15th, 2009 Play Online Poker at Full Tilt Poker

7 Responses to “#932 – Tournament Preservation Strategy, Part I – The Invisible Giant”

1. Damien Says:
   December 15th, 2009 at 6:23 pm

   The question comes down to the non-linear value of chips in a poker tournament. Each additional chip in your stack has a decreasing marginal value.

   There are at least three different formulas for valuing tournament chips in the late stages based on prizes yet to be awarded. All of these formulas presume risk-neutrality and equal skill among remaining players.

   They also ignore the entertainment value of staying in the tournament, the opportunity cost of staying at the table, and the the added benefits of winning (fame, celebrity, etc.).

   If I were as good as Hellmuth thinks he is, and it was a once-a-year type event, I would fold aces pre-flop too.

   But no one is as good as Hellmuth thinks he is. Look at Stuey Unger’s WSOP ME record for contrast; he’s either out the first day or won it all.

2. Jim J Says:
   December 15th, 2009 at 6:32 pm

   Would love to hear/read everyone’s take on this subject. I am, in my estimate, an average player who is getting better each day. I can and have won a couple of 90 player SNG’s on Full Tilt. The difference in the times when I am there at the end or not is focus, patience, getting some decent cards and preservation awareness or just not putting myself in a position of getting knocked out.

   The more I am willing to not engage in “all in” situations where I am exposed to losing all or most of my chips and wait for better, less mortal risk situations the more I am around at the end and can cash out.

   So, I would love to hear from people who are better players than I am some thoughts that could help me quantify what I am doing currently “by the seat of my pants”!

   Great blog Michael … I am loving reading it!

3. Carl Adkins Says:
   December 16th, 2009 at 9:20 am

   An excellent post Michael,..and a subject I have been giving much thought to lately. I have been putting a premium on making the money in as many tourney’s as possible,..lately,…as opposed to my usual strategy of going for a large stack early or mid tourney,…and often busting out trying. I’ve yet to determine which will have the higher ROI,..but i have made many,..many small cashes lately and I feel I’m making progress towards some insights into the questions surrounding this issue. I still feel the best strategy is to channel Jimi Hendrix at key junctures in a tourney,…and follow the Masters advice, Celery,…Carl Adkins.

4. James L Brooks Says:
   December 18th, 2009 at 1:54 am

   Very good post.

   Here is my question..

   How is it possible told fold AA preflop in some tourneys, while in others, you need to aggressively attack the weaker players and the blinds. And I am not talking the difference between turbo and deep stacked. I find the mix of waiting for premium
   hands, and stealing to be confusing lately.

   I dont steal enough, I dont call enough, and then I take the miracle 100:1 bad beat when I do have a monster. A very bad formula.

   I used to cruise the top 10% from start to finish, but now I just hover around the bubble.

   James L Brooks

5. Rex Says:
   December 20th, 2009 at 12:57 pm

   I am happy to hear the thought’s and advice of others on this issue, it has been a dilemma for me at times.I have been playing a great deal of tourney’s on “Full Tilt”. Many are extremely volatile in the initial stages with respect to players going “all-in”. It seems insane to be sitting at a table where 5 or 6 of the 9 players are all in on the first hand…it’s anyone’s ball then..based entirely on luck of the draw. I understand that is not good strategy yet more heavily on my mind has been “all-in’s” in various stages of the tournament. A player for many years my game is only now beginning to evolve and grow due to the instruction available on “Full Tilt”. I would like to personally thank Mr Craig for his continuing contributions that are informative and useful. Damien, Jim, and Carl have very good comments as well.Thank you all for your thoughts on this subject…I reckon we’ll see ya at the tables..lol..

6. DLeeCT Says:
   December 21st, 2009 at 1:07 am

   Just want to make sure I understand math here. You said that if you think you have 40% chance, and there is 12,000 in pot, then a bet of 4,800 or less is giving you the right odds to call. However, 12,000 divided by 4,800 is 2.5, which gives pot odds of 2.5-to-1 and therefore assumes a 28.5% chance of winning (1 divided by (2.5+1)). If you are 40%, should you be getting odds of 1.5-to-1, and therefore be willing to call any bet up to 8,000?? Did I do my calculations wrong?

7. daniel adams Says:
   December 29th, 2009 at 1:13 pm

   mow i am just in to my 4th year of poker, and i cannot say any good poker player would fold aa pre flop now what player would that make you?the only time i would consider folded aa is i ever got to the world series of poker and it was first hand and 3 players was all in before me and even then i have to think??love your poker forum always readin and try to inprove my game thx very much

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