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GrinderFamily3 The Grinder Has Arrived

It’s 9:10 PM and we’ve been back from the dinner break for about 45 minutes. Just a few minutes ago, Grinder raised and Candio three-bet. Grinder went into the tank and four-bet, putting Candio all-in or close if he called. Candio folded. According to the chip counts, Michael Mizrachi is now the chip leader:

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Racenerint+ John Racener is NOT Keith Richards

It’s the blue eyes. If Keith Richards ever looked into a mirror and ever saw those eyes staring back at him, there’s no way he could have shot heroin. Yes, John Racener loves to party. And yes, he’s 24 years old and has never spent a day in a straight job. But there’s also sensibility, an interest in staying near home in the company of close friends, and even, occasionally, wisdom.

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JarvisBusts Nice Guys Finish . . .

I should start this post by telling you I know of no bad guys at the final table. I didn’t get a chance to meet Duhamel or Senti, the Pokerstars guys, and I just missed Candio twice. (Both our shared interests in law and literature, how bad could Filippo be?) I spent a fair amount of time with the other six players during the last month and a half and I’ve come to like them all.

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It told me to invest in Depends, because it’s going to be damned near impossible to blink, much less go to the bathroom. When Soi Nguyen busted, there was still 1 1/2 minutes left in the level. They took the break early, I wrote the previous post about Soi during the break, and figured I’d get back to analyzing the first level during the slow early minutes once play resumed.

Yeah, right.

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 soiexitint Sorry Soi   Last in, First Out

Just before 2pm, at the very end of the level, Jason Senti has busted Soi Nguyen. Senti had been playing his short stack aggressively and chipping up, and had passed Nguyen in chips, as well as Matthew Jarvis, who took a big step backward against Joseph Cheong in an early hand. But this hand was automatic: Q-Q for Senti, A-K for Nguyen. Senti hit a set on the flop, but an accompanying ten shift Nguyen from six outs (aces and kings) to four (jacks).

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Soisback Final Table 2010   Pandemonium

12:35 pm – Cards are live. The introductions were lavish and loud, with each player escorted to the table from beneath the stands by a ring girl, to roars from the crowd. Soi Nguyen, in the Nine Seat, is seen above as the last man to enter the room. I can’t see his face, but I know what he’s thinking: “Last to enter, last to leave.”

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When the final nine players begin play in the next few minutes, they will have 75 minutes remaining in level 36, 250k-500k blinds, 50k antes. By the end of that level, we should have a very good idea of what is to follow. Answers to the following questions will direct the outcome:

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There’s only one question worth asking before the Final Table begins: Who is going to win? Odds makers over the internet have laid down their price. Just about everybody covering the Series has given their opinion. And now I am going to give you the definitive analysis.

Almost everything you’ve read is nonsense. There are several ways to look at the players’ chances and practically everybody has gotten it wrong.

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grinder2 Michael the Grinder Mizrachi   Giant in a Small Space

If I was going to get close enough to Michael Mizrachi to provide any real insight, I faced an uphill battle. The Full Tilt media event in London at The SoHo would be attended by a lot of poker media, presumably asking the same questions and moving on to the next interview. Not only did I expect no preferential treatment from Full Tilt, but I felt I should defer to outside media in this setting. In addition, like everyone else, Full Tilt’s November Seven were all strangers to me and I had to use the occasion to develop up to seven relationships.

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On the one hand, hindsight is always 20-20. On the other, those few occasions on which I saw the Grinder during his salad days screams out to me that he was headed for a fall.

Indeed, the summer of 2006 turned out to be his zenith. Although he later scored a few good tournament results, the poker rollercoaster, for Grinder, careened downward. He was invisible at the 2009 World Series. His hometown newspaper in Florida, three weeks before the 2010 Series, reported that the IRS had filed a tax lien for $340,000 and two of his residences were in foreclosure.

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