2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 1

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2009 World Series of Poker Main Event “November Nine”

The poker world is now gearing up to crown the 2009 World Series of Poker Champion. Just a few short weeks from now the final 9 players left standing in the Main Event will make their way back to the Rio Hotel and Casino to play down to the bracelet winner. Some players are well known while a few have come from nowhere with a chance at poker immortality. Over the next few days I will be joined by a few poker bloggers who will do their best to handicap the entire table from chip leader to short stack.

The odds provided are purely for entertainment sake. Unless you are in a country that allows such things, in that case feel free to use their insight to your favor. Two fellow poker bloggers have found the time to join along in my crazy attempt to enlighten, inform, and entertain. They both come from different backgrounds and shed a different light on the remaining players. Your Poker From the Rail Handicapping Team:

Spaceman – one of the original poker bloggers who has worked in the poker industry for many years. He’s been everything from a tournament reporter to a published columnist. From home games to side events to world championship tournaments, he’s seen more hands of poker than the average person would even consider sane. It’s for this experience I recruited him to join along in helping us get a better feel of the players as we get set to claim a new poker champion.

Riggstad – a many faceted individual who has ties to all parts of the poker world. His unique experience also involves witnessing players at every level of poker, from complete amateurs to some of the best players in the world. He brings his East Coast grinder perspective to the biggest poker tournament in the world.

Each installment will feature 3 players at the final table, starting with the chip leader and moving to the short stack. I’ve listed their current odds from various sources as well as a short bio. There is plenty of information below, feel free to leave a comment if you agree or disagree.

2009 November Nine Handicapping Part 2
2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 3

2009 November Nine Handicapping Part 1 is after the jump.

2009 November Nine chip counts:

Darvin Moon – 58,930,000
Eric Buchman – 34,800,000
Steven Begleiter – 29,885,000
Jeff Shulman = 19,580,000
Joe Cada – 13,215,000
Kevin Schaffel – 12,390,000
Phil Ivey – 9,765,000
Antoine Saout – 9,500,000
James Akenhead – 6,800,000

Darvin Moon – Seat 1 – 58,930,000 chips (M = 93.54)
Current odds from 17/10 to 3/1

The gentleman from Maryland comes to the final table with a massive chip lead over the rest of the other 8 players. A huge chunk of them coming in the form a “gift” from Billy Kopp. The hand I am looking forward to the most during the broadcast. Moon already had the chip lead, this hand just put the word “massive” in front of it.

There were a stories going around that the trip to Vegas was his first time on a plane, that his only poker playing experience involved playing charity games at the local VFW, that he never once played online and had no desire to do that. He wasn’t going to take any sponsorship money, coaching offers, or press/promotions. Naturally some things were true and others were just stories being passed around outside the Poker Kitchen.

It seems he’s going to keep with the “no sponsor” stance but he’s already talking to the press. You have to like the brutal honesty when he tells the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette during an interview.

“I’m not all that good,” he insists in a slow drawl that just might make you let your guard down. “I’m just lucky and got the good cards. And when I got the best cards, somebody always seemed to have the cards just a little bit worse than I had, and I won big pots.”

Then again just this week to J. Freedom du Lac of the Washington Post.

“I really believe all eight of my opponents are better than I am. How can’t I believe that? They all have more experience than I do. I play three nights every two weeks at little tournaments like this (local Elks Club tournament).”

Here is what our poker handicappers have to say about Darvin Moon’s chances:

From Spaceman:

Not since Jamie Gold in 2006 has a final table chip leader come in with such a huge percentage (in this case, 30%) of the chips in play. And much like Jamie Gold, those chips have come Moon’s way thanks to an incredible run of cards; Moon will even tell you that himself. If you add on top of this the fact that Moon is an amateur who says that he’s not even the best player in the Elks Lodge tournaments he plays back home in western Maryland, it’s clear that what needs to happen for Moon to win this tournament is for him to continue to be clobbered over the head with the deck.

Luckily for Moon, it doesn’t have to be a constant clobbering; with an M near 100 as the final table begins he has more than enough room to lose a few substantial pots and still be in the hunt, especially if he were to do so in the process of doubling up one of the short stacks at the table. It’s hard to say how a run of a few bad hands might affect him in terms of emotional stability at the table, though one has to think that if the short stack he doubled were Phil Ivey he might have a little bit of fear struck into his heart.

Moon’s seat at the table is going to be a factor as well. Jeff Shulman (19,580,000) and Antoine Saout (9,500,000) are the two players on his right who he’ll be facing if he decides to give action out of his blinds; a few bad calls out of position against Shulman could quickly deplete his stack, while any urge to try and take out the Frenchman on the short stack could go badly wrong if Moon’s read of Saout’s strength is off at all. Meanwhile, Saout’s fellow short stacks James Akenhead and Phil Ivey are to his direct left, giving them the opportunity to exert some serious pressure on Moon if he decides to get frisky in position. Given that chips usually flow to the left in a typical poker game, one or two serious missteps might be all it would take to sink Moon’s chances of winning.

Moon does have one big advantage: he’s a true amateur who’s gone back to his day job during the break from July to November, refusing sponsorship and coaching offers. If anyone at the table is going to have a clear mind and a lack of outside pressure on him, it’s Moon.

All told, I’d place Darvin Moon’s chances at about 9/2.

From Riggstad:

When I looked at this final table, it was hard to avoid looking at the “names” and researching who was who in poker and what their accomplishments were to date. When asked by the casual fan, “Are there any pros at the table?”, the first answer given was of course, Phil Ivey. I am usually stopped right there, and asked “who holds the chip lead?”. This brings us to Darvin Moon. In his own words, he was crushing the deck during the whole tournament. As it reads above, he was on a super rush. Getting monster hands that not only held up against his opponents, but at times where his opponents actually had the right to go in against him. One could say that he was just unbeatable. The question becomes, will the time off steal his “Mojo”? As much as his run to the final table was due in part to this “rush”, it still needs to be said that at some point, he actually played some serious poker. No one gets through a gabillion people by luck sacking the whole way through.

Again, as my counterpart pointed out, Darvin has the distinct advantage of not having any pressure on him to perform. Being the Elks Club player he is, no one is going to be disappointed by him going out early. Squandering his chip lead will bring the head shakers to the surface, but it’s not like he has industry expectations like an Ivey or Shulman might have. Given that distinct advantage, he will be hard to bluff. The bottom line is, if he has a hand, he’s most likely going to play it. Second nuts, or not. Of course this could be a benefit to other players if they get hot, and eat away at his stack quickly. The fact that he has 30% of the chips on the table, and my assumption that he will continue to play his standard game and not be able to get pushed around will give Darvin the best, or worst chance at winning this tournament. His competition though are adept and finding soft spots and exploiting edges. I just think he will be outmatched. Because of that assumption, I will set the chip leader as an underdog and place the money line for Darvin at +350.

Eric Buchman – Seat 6 – 34,800,000 chips (M = 55.24)
Currents odds from 3/1 to 9/2

Buchman is an East Coast poker player who already had a taste of glory earlier in the 2009 World Series of Poker. He made the final table of the Omaha and Stud Hi/Lo tournament, finishing 6th place in the tournament which would see Phil Ivey win his second bracelet of the series. His second career final table was stacked besides Ivey, with Carlos Mortensen (3rd), Dutch Boyd (4th), and Jon “Pearljammer” Turner (5th). With over $1,000,000 already in his pocket for his November Nine appearance, this will more than double his career tournament earnings.

Buchman spends most of his time playing cash games on the East Coast, only occasionally making his way west to the poker rooms of Las Vegas. This is his 10th cash in a WSOP event and his 3rd career WSOP final table, his best finish was 2nd in 2006 Event #4. His resume shows an impressive mix in his earnings, Stud and Omaha variations as well as both Limit and No Limit Hold’em scores. As far as how he got to this point in the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event, he told the world via an ESPN Chat session that he was all-in and behind several times:

“There were three times when I was all in and behind and managed to suck out and win those three hands. There were probably another handful of times where I was all in and ahead and my hand held up.”

Buchman will resume play sitting with a second place chip stack with 3rd place Steven Begleiter to his right and Joe Cada to his left.

Here is what our poker handicappers have to say about Eric Buchman’s chances:

From Spaceman:

Buchman is one of the more accomplished players in this field, having already racked up nearly $1 million in tournament winnings before making the November Nine. His top finishes on a tournament resume that stretches back to 2002 include a win in the 2004 New England Poker Classic at Foxwoods (worth $275,400), a runner-up finish in a 2006 WSOP limit hold’em event ($174,938), and another runner-up finish in a 2007 WSOP Circuit main event in Atlantic City ($208,666). He has two previous WSOP final tables to his credit and has also made deep runs in four big WPT main events, finishing between 40th and 22nd place in each of them.

Obviously Buchman has proven himself to be a dangerous hold’em player whether the game is limit or no-limit, but he also has significant cashes in Omaha Hi/Lo, Stud Hi/Lo, and O8/Stud-8 split events at the WSOP. That displays the kind of overall poker skill that leads to championships. In addition, his proficiency at limit hold’em in particular means he has the same skill set that has made limit hold’em champs like Daniel Negreanu and Erick Lindgren so successful in these big no-limit tournaments.

When it comes to position at the table, Buchman’s situation is somewhat similar to Moon’s. He has two short stacks, Joe Cada (13,215,000) and Antoine Saout (9,500,000), directly to his left, meaning they’ll have plenty of opportunity to exert pressure on any late-position moves that he decides to make. However, Buchman’s skill should make him a little less vulnerable than Moon to making missteps in reading whether such moves are legitimate. On Buchman’s right will be two players who have been running pretty hot since the table broke in July, Steven Begleiter (29,885,000) and Kevin Schaffel (12,390,000). Given his experience and skill advantage, I’d think he would be looking for chances to see cheap flops against both of these guys with speculative hands that could lead to big pots, especially in blind-vs.-blind confrontations with the similarly deep-stacked Begleiter; in fact, I think that run-ins between these two could make for some of the most interesting hands at the final table.

Simply put, Buchman is going to be a major obstacle for anyone who thinks they can run through him. He won’t be easily trapped, and on the flip side he’ll be more than capable of setting his own traps. And much like the most celebrated player at the table, Phil Ivey, Buchman is capable of shifting gears and adjusting his playing style to the situation he faces at any given time. Couple that with a big stack and you’ve got a man who’s primed to win this tournament.

Overall, I’d put Buchman’s chances at about 4/1.

From Riggstad:

Do some research on Buchman and what you will find reading between the lines is that he is a player of exceptional skill and experience. Eric has 5 final tables in his poker repertoire, as far back as 2002 which proves that he has plenty of final table experience. Winning once and coming in second twice means he knows how to close as well. All signs point to him as being a very large threat to everyone at the table. That and his chip stack, second to only Darvin, should be very worrisome to all others at the table. Buchman has a lot of experience and success in all forms of poker, which points to his abilities to exploit others, overcome beats, and generally be comfortable against any and all opponents during his push to obtain the most coveted bracelet in all of poker.

Now, all of the above points to excellent things for Eric and his chances for taking this whole thing down. What hasn’t been considered is how that experience will hurt his chances. That is to say, how much experience do the others at the table have playing with him? How much do the others know about his tendencies and how will they be able to exploit them? Sitting between x and y is all good for experienced players knowing when to squeeze, bluff, and 4 bet light, but the best players in the world also know their opponents. The largest consideration will be Eric’s mindset. Sure, he has a ton of experience and success, all dating back to 2002. That’s 7 years however of recorded playing time with a million in wins. One could ask “That’s all?”. I would (will) assume that this man is probably really wanting this tournament in the worst way. We’ve all played tournaments (whether its a casino daily, a home game, or a World Championship event) in a mindset where we convince ourselves we have to win. How does that effect your game? Well, with what’s at stake for Buchman, I’m guessing he’s going to have to overcome some personal mental demons. I would expect him to start out fast and furious. One bad beat however, could send him in to a very depressive state that will effect his game for the worse. Or maybe it won’t. All things considered I will make him a favorite and place his money line at +300.

Steven Begleiter – Seat 5 – 29,885,000 chips (M = 47.44)
Current odds from 4/1 to 6/1

Steven Begleiter won his way into the 2009 World series of Poker Main Event in nearly the same fashion as our chip leader Darvin Moon. Begleiter earned the $10,000 entry fee by winning a local poker league tournament, that is where the comparisons end. While our chip leader is an unknown from the panhandle of Maryland, Begleiter spent nearly 25 years as a top investment bank executive. He led the corporate strategy team at Bear Stearns before the 75 year old company collapsed under the weight of “excessive leverage and large bets on subprime mortgage bonds”.

During his ESPN Chat session, he was asked “How is finance and poker similar?”

“Well, they are similar in that you have to make decisions on partial yet incomplete data. Sometimes the situations call for mathematical analysis and sometimes they call for gut feel, and sometimes a mix. In poker, you get feedback and results instantaneously while in business sometimes it takes years to find out.”

Before this run at the Main Event, Steven Begleiter was not sporting much of a poker resume but that will change no matter his finish at the final table. Begleiter recently signed on as a member of Team Full Tilt and will start third in chips with the always dangerous Phil Ivey to his right. His thoughts on that:

“There are very few players in the world who would say they want Phil Ivey on their left, despite how many chips he has and I am not one of them. Having said that, Eric Buchman is a very accomplished player. I expect great difficulty in dealing with his large stack on my left.”

Another East Coast grinder as a member of the November Nine, here is what our poker handicappers have to say about Steven Begleiter’s chances:\

From Spaceman:

Steven Begleiter might not be a professional poker player, but he has been playing the game all his life. He made his way to the Main Event through a home poker league with a lineup of other intelligent, enthusiastic amateur poker players, which speaks well of his abilities at the table. His professional background in the world of finance – he was the head of corporate strategy at Bear Stearns – also gives him a solid insight into the calculation of risk that translates well into a game that’s all about risk. Of all the amateur players at the table, I’d expect Begleiter to make the fewest mistakes when it comes to chasing draws and making big calls, but at the end of the day he is still an amateur.

Begleiter has mostly been working his day job during his time off from the Main Event, but he managed to squeeze in enough poker time to finish in 9th place at the Legends of Poker main event in Los Angeles this August. That’s his only other career cash outside of the big one that we’re looking at right now, but it’s evidence that he’s been thinking very clearly at the poker table since this summer. However, he has entered a few other events in the meantime without any cashes, so it’s difficult to know whether that mindset will carry over once the bright lights and cameras turn on at the Rio in November.

On Begleiter’s direct left at the final table will be Eric Buchman (34,800,000) and Joe Cada (13,215,000). Given that they’re all stacked enough to see some flops I would expect that Begleiter would be eager to exert some pressure on the button, and as I mentioned above I think that the blind-vs.-blind confrontations between him and Buchman could make for some of the most interesting hands at the table. Should that be the case, the outcome of those hands will go a long way toward determining Begleiter’s chances in this event. And since Buchman has the bigger stack of the two of them, an early loss for Begleiter would knock him back down the ranks and put him in jeopardy of exiting the tournament much lower than his starting stack would seem to indicate.

On Begleiter’s right, meanwhile, are Kevin Schaffel (12,390,000) and Phil Ivey (9,765,000). Schaffel finished in second place in that same Legends of Poker tournament, so he and Begleiter have seen a bit of each other at the tables, but on balance Begleiter’s position ought to give him the best of their confrontations. When it comes to Ivey, though, Begleiter will have to be wary of making any ill-timed moves, as doubling Ivey up would make him a contender again and the last thing anybody wants is the world’s most dangerous player holding a big stack on the button when they’re in the big blind.

Overall, I would place Begleiter’s chances at about 6/1.

From Riggstad:

Begleiter to me could be the most dangerous player in the field. What’s that you ask? “An amateur being the biggest threat?” Am I crazy, or stupid? Well let’s consider this guy for a minute. One, he has the third largest chip stack at the table. Secondly he has made a living underwriting risk as the head of corporate strategy at Bear Stearns, which tells me that he is a very analytical, thinking player. OK, big assumption, but when you don’t have much else to go on, you look to personal accomplishments. I’m sure Head of Corporate Strategy at a fortune 100 bank didn’t only pay 120k a year and have a pre requisite of a bachelors degree in economics. Given his life accomplishments to date, and what he has achieved so far in his poker playing life (final table of the 2009 WSOP), I’m going to assume that among all the players at the table, he most likely has the biggest desire to win coupled with the thought that anything else doesn’t really matter. My point is, I believe that Steve will play this as a win or lose proposition. With no pressure on him at all, he’s likely to take the most aggressive line given the field and what’s at stake. Sure, I said Moon has zero pressure as well, but he is going to want to move up the money ladder. The more money he wins the happier he is going to be. I don’t think Begleiter will be happier if he places third instead of 9th. There is no 9th through 2nd place for Begleiter.

Given that assumption, he will be most likely to play the hardest. His risk assessment will be based wholly on the complete outcome of the event, not any individual hand. His ability to play, the lack of experience others at the table have of him, and his chip stack tell me he should be a favorite. But with everything I have written above, he is still in unknown territory. Given a 90,000 foot view, my assumption that he will play hard and fast might get him into trouble, and lead to an early exit. November will tell. My line on this player will fall purely on details I don’t have. The old adage, “The devil is in the details” holds true for setting the line on this guy. Given normal probable outcomes I think, if my assumptions are right, that Steve is a favorite. I will set his line at +600.

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