2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 2

Posted by AlCantHang | Filed under Bloggers on the Rail

2009 November Nine and bracelet

The 2009 World Series of Poker Championship bracelet awaits the November Nine winner
Photo credit: flipchip at LasVegasVegas.com

The field is into double digits on the ESPN Main Event broadcasts and you start to see some of your November Nine players pull to the front. Tuesday’s show finally gave everyone a little taste of Darvin Moon’s run through the Main Event, the man couldn’t miss. Billy Kopp also starts to build a massive chip castle setting up very nicely for the Day 8 broadcast when the two go to war. Other players also spent this last episode donating chips to Phil Ivey, even when he didn’t have the goods he would flop golden. “You know I can have a hand once in awhile, right?” he told another player. November Nine players James Akenhead, Joe Cada, and Steve Begleiter began to get some exposure as the field narrowed. Still not seeing too much mention of Eric Buchman, Kevin Schaffel or Antoine Saout but those three will show up very soon. Nicole Peppe was eliminated in this latest broadcast leaving Leo Margets as the “Last Woman Standing” in the Main Event.

There are just a few episodes remaining before the final players gather themselves back at the Rio to play down to the champion. Last week I brought you Part 1 of a series attempting to gather a few friends together and handicap the November Nine for entertainment purposes. I was joined by professional writer “Spaceman” and semi-pro donk “Riggstad”, both shared their thoughts on how the top 3 chip leaders would fair. This week we move onto the middle three stacks with Jeff Shulman, Joe Cada, and Kevin Shaffel. Shulman is the polarizing player, Cada the young internet professional, Shaffel the amateur crashing on his friend’s couch in Florida. Another interesting cast of characters. You can find the link below for Part 1 and Part 2 is after the jump.

2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 1
2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 3

2009 November Nine chip counts:

Darvin Moon – 58,930,000
Eric Buchman – 34,800,000
Steven Begleiter – 29,885,000
Jeff Shulman = 19,580,000
Joe Cada – 13,215,000
Kevin Schaffel – 12,390,000
Phil Ivey – 9,765,000
Antoine Saout – 9,500,000
James Akenhead – 6,800,000

Jeff Shulman – Seat 9 – 19,580,000 chips (M = 31.08)
Current odds from 4/1 to 11/2

Other than Phil Ivey, Jeff “Happy” Shulman is the most well known player at the final table. He is the president and editor of the CardPlayer media empire owned by his father Barry Shulman. In the short history of the November Nine, Shulman will be the first player to with any WSOP Main Event table experience. Back in 2000 Shulman entered the final 9 with a chipstack near the top but lost several big hands to eventual winner Chris “Jesus” Ferguson. Shulman finished 7th that year for his best and biggest finish to date. All told he has 14 cashes in the World Series of Poker (I’m excluding his 3rd place finish in a Media Charity event) and this will be his 4th WSOP final table. Shulman has over $1,300,000 in career tournament earnings but has no cashes since April 2008.

In a nod towards the explosion of poker, Shulman received $146,000 for his 7th place finish in 2000. If you finished between 37th and 45th in this year’s World Series of Poker Main Event you received $178,857.

For those around the poker world, Jeff Shulman is also the player who said promised to “throw it in the garbage” if he won the Main Event bracelet. Shulman has since clarified his statement saying that he would not actually throw the bracelet away, but would find something interesting to do with it. He has an ongoing beef with how the WSOP is now run by those in charge and seems to be using his newly elevated status to bring his issues to the front. In a Washington Post chat session on October 5th he was asked about his opinion on Harrahs and the WSOP. Among his complaints I found this statement:

“They have devalued the bracelets by having too many events and adding Europe.”

In other poker news, Barry Shulman (father of Jeff) won the 2009 World Series of Poker Europe Main Event bracelet. Presented with no editorial comment whatsoever.

Jeff Shulman has also gone with the decision to hire a “coach” to prepare for the Main Event final table. He chose none other than 11 time bracelet winner Phil Hellmuth. It will be interesting to see what effect that will have on his game. He will begin the day sitting 4th in chips and getting cozy with the dealer in the 9 Seat. Massive stack Darvin Moon is to his left and shortstack Antoine Saout is to his right.

Our poker prognosticators have this to say about Shulman:

From Spaceman:

Jeff Shulman has demonstrated skill in a variety of poker variants, cashing in limit hold’em, pot-limit hold’em, stud hi-lo, pot-limit Omaha, and several mixed-game events. However, he’s not exactly known for being a closer; his last win that wasn’t in a made-for-TV single table tournament came five years ago in an Ultimate Poker Challenge event that had a field of 36 players, and he only had two tournament wins prior to that one.

For the most part Shulman relies on playing a tight-aggressive game, meaning that if the cards don’t come he’s at a relative disadvantage to those at the table who are willing to come in with lesser hands. However, if the table plays too passively he’s more than capable of shifting into high gear and taking control; in the Washington Post chat he told readers that gear served him well through the first three days of this tournament. Assuming that the action slows down at some point, the two keys to whether Shulman’s top gear will work will be his position at the table and how many players remain in contention at the time.

With short stack Antoine Saout on Shulman’s direct right and the slightly better-stacked Joe Cada two spots to his right, the CardPlayer editor will probably face some pressure on his blinds as these two look to exploit their positional advantage. But he’ll also have the ability to take down valuable pots by applying more pressure against these shorter stacks out of the blinds, which signals a much stronger hand than aggression from late position. Bad timing in making a move on these two guys would mean losing some chips, but Shulman can afford a misstep or two before he finds himself in desperate straits.

On Shulman’s direct left is the chip leader, Darvin Moon. If Moon were the kind of player who could switch gears easily that would be a pretty big disadvantage for Shulman, but Moon’s amateur status means that Shulman will probably look to see a lot of flops against him in the hopes of hitting one hard and getting Moon to overcommit when he hits a slightly worse hand. All it would take to make Shulman a serious contender would be a single double-up through the chip leader. One spot further to the left is short stack James Akenhead; the Brit is definitely dangerous if he has chips, but unless he manages to catch a big hand in the early going Shulman should be able to pilfer his blinds almost at will.

Shulman himself has said in the press that he’ll be under a lot of pressure in November. As the editor of CardPlayer magazine, the son of the reigning WSOP Europe Main Event champion, the only player in this group to have previously made the Main Event final table, the student of 11-time-bracelet-winning blowhard Phil Hellmuth, and the most well-known player with a decent-sized stack at this final table, Shulman probably has more expectations placed on him than any other player at the table. Given all those factors, he could be forgiven if he were to find himself having a hard time focusing on the task at hand. But he’s decently stacked and if he manages to take a nice pot or two from the more inexperienced chip leader on his left, Shulman could have a real chance at winning. It all depends on how he handles the very real psychological pressure.

Overall, I’d put Shulman’s chances of winning at about 13/2.

From Riggstad:

Ever hear of a thing called Karma? How about Murphy’s law? What am I referring to? How about the statement Shulman made about throwing the bracelet away. Or maybe he said he wouldn’t accept it. Either way his point was made. CardPlayer didn’t exactly like its treatment by Harrahs when they were shut out of reporting the WSOP a few years back and Shulman hasn’t forgotten. His getting deep into the final table would be a huge story aside from the poker playing it will take to get there. That’s what gets me to my points. Or Jason’s points really.

Shulman has proven to be a nut peddler. That’s not saying he won’t or can’t switch it up, his training with Hellmuth will help. I’m sure the best player ever in the world will use this training not just to point out how to play NLHE final tables, but will suggest how to play against the competition that are known factors and how they will play.

Shulman certainly has an opportunity to do extremely well. His image is not unknown but it could work if he changes it up out of the gates.

Shulman also has a tone of experience and in the same way I write about Begleiter, I don’t know that anything from 9th to 2nd would mean anything to Jeff. He’s another “First or Lose” player at this table. The time between July and November is most likely more important to Shulman than any other player in terms of preparing for this final table. He has a good trainer, he has a ton of experience, he has a boatload of data to research, and he has the time. How he uses that time in preparation for the final table will give him the largest advantage of any other player. Because of that I will put him as a favorite at + $350.

Joe “jcada99″ Cada – Seat 7 – 13,215,000 chips (M = 20.98)
Current odds from 10/1 to 15/1

At first glance Joe Cada seems to be the big unknown coming into the final table. He just recently turned 21 and this year was his first at the WSOP tables. Not a bad start to his young career with 2 cashes in preliminary events. That brought his live tournament earnings up to just $28,000. But as usual when researching the young guns in the poker world, it’s necessary to dig a little deeper and peer into their online resume. That’s where things are a little more interesting with our 5th place chip stack.

Going by the online name of “jcada99″ he has built up some big online victories, pulling in over $500,000 in Full Tilt tournaments alone. His biggest score was taking down the $750,000 Guarantee in January ‘08 for nearly $150,000, then just under a year ago when he banked $49,000 for winning The Sunday Mulligan. His biggest score since the WSOP Main Event was a second place finish in the $200,000 Guarantee ($150 with rebuys) just 4 days after returning home from booking his November Nine invitation.

Cada began his live poker career by taking advantage of his geography. While the age limit to play in a U.S. casino is 21 years old, living in Michigan allowed him to cross over into Canada and try his hand at the young age of 18. He says he’s mainly a cash game player with just a few excursions into the tournament world. He was encouraged to expand his game by friend and fellow Michigan resident Dean Hamrick (last year’s unfortunate November Nine bubble boy). His odds are floating between 10/1 and 15/1 which is the first big leap after Shulman’s 4/1. If Cada can channel his online success to this final table he will supplant Peter Eastgate as the youngest Main Event winner, just a year after Eastgate took that distinction away from Phil Hellmuth.

Our poker bloggers have this to say about Joe “jcada99″ Cada’s chances:

From Spaceman:

Joe Cada shares a lot of similarities with last year’s champion, Peter Eastgate, and they go beyond the obvious age factor. Like Cada this year, Eastgate came in to last year’s final table in the middle of the pack. Also like Cada, Eastgate was an online player who had seen as many hands by the age of 21 as professionals used to see in a decade of play (though Cada has a fair bit of live experience as well). And most importantly of all, Eastgate was overlooked as a contender for the title – much like Cada this year.

I think it’s a mistake to discount Cada’s chances in this tournament. He has a solid understanding of the math behind the game, so he won’t be chasing draws at the wrong time and he’ll also be able to make advanced plays based on implied odds. And with so much online experience, this 21-year-old also has a lot of final table experience that should translate into picking his spots well. Over the course of the last day leading up to the final table Cada demonstrated a fearless approach to accumulating chips, and he also demonstrated an ability to stay cool under pressure after having his A-A cracked by Jamie Robbins’ T-T. Both of those traits should serve him well at a table where he has more experience than about half of his opponents.

On Cada’s right are two of the three biggest stacks at the table, Eric Buchman and Steven Begleiter. Having position on these two will give Cada ample opportunity to make a few moves against players who can afford to give up a pot if they sense that they’re in trouble, and if he manages to catch a break in the early going and chip up then that position will become an effective weapon.

To his left are short-stacked Frenchman Antoine Saout and our fourth-place man, Jeff Shulman. Given his experience and aggressive style, it won’t be a big surprise to see Cada lean on both of these guys pretty heavily when he’s on the button. You can also expect him to get away from trouble spots pretty easily.

The key for Cada is going to be chip accumulation. If he’s able to build his stack, especially at the expense of Buchman or Begleiter, he’s going to be a serious threat to win. But if he takes a hit early his chances will mostly depend on a little help from the deck.

All told, I’d put Cada’s chances of winning at about 9/1.

From Riggstad:

This player is very interesting to me. I also see the comparisons between Eastgate and Cada. Chip stack, experience, and so on. But this guy has shown a very mature attitude during the whole event. He kind of reminds me of a very young Barry Greenstein. That being said he has his work cut out for him.

Chip accumulation is going to be a must, and with two monster stacks on the table it could prove to be fairly easy. The determination of that is going to be how the rest of the table plays. If the big stacks come out speeding and playing very fast and hard, Cada could be in a good spot. Of course, the same could be said if the big stacks play very tentatively. That could give Cada a good chance at picking up some nice sized pre flop pots. The question becomes if he will be the only guy vying for those uncontested pots. I think Mr. Ivey might have a thing or two to say about that.

The point I am trying to make is that Cada is one of the players at the table who needs to rely on luck the least in terms of skill and mind set. Unfortunately, I think his chances of winning the whole thing rely wholly on circumstance and luck. Circumstance in that he will need things to go perfectly in any given hand. Get raised into when he’s holding the nuts, be bluffed into when holding the goods, and have action when he does have hands. Luck in the sense that when he does make a move, he either doesn’t do it against a made hand, or he catches up. OK, OK, that seems very standard for anyone to win a tournament, but I don’t see him being able to grind his way to the win. He will need a fast start to scare off the bigger stacks in the middle portions. If that happens, look out. He will be tough to beat.

I’ll set the money line on him at +600.

Kevin Schaffel – Seat 4 – 12,390,000 chips (M = 19.67)
Current odds from 12/1 to 15/1

It’s not easy to categorize Kevin Schaffel. He’s certainly not an amateur, making the decision to jump into full time poker play just a little over 18 months ago, but it’s tough to slot him anywhere. He concentrates mostly on grinding it away in the cash games at his local Florida card rooms and traveling to various big tournaments. This year is his second deep run in the WSOP Main Event, he finished 42nd in 2004 in the tournament eventually won by Greg Raymer. He only has one other WSOP cash in his career and he’s already guaranteed his biggest tournament payday with the $1.2million check already in the bank. His career total before this series was just over $100,000.

His bankroll received another boost just a little over a month after reaching the WSOP Main Event final table when he entered the WPT Legends of Poker tournament at the Bicycle Casino. Whether it was a continued heater, his boosted confidence from Vegas, or a good player rising to the top, he had another huge run. 279 players paid up $10,000 for the tournament and Schaffel outlasted all but Prahlad Friedman to book a $470,000 day for second place.

He credits patience and a little luck for his run to the November Nine. At one point early in the Main Event he found himself drawing thin after flopping a set of tens versus a flopped straight. The board paired on the river and we’ll have to wait until November to write the final chapter on his tournament. He’ll restart the final table sitting with Phil Ivey (9,765,000) on his right and Steven Begleiter (29,885,000) on his left.

From Spaceman:

I find Schaffel’s chances at this final table the hardest of all to pinpoint. His run at the Legends of Poker proved that he has some very real poker skills and that he can hang in there with more experienced players, which bodes well for him. But he also has a number of near-misses in other big tournaments on his resume, which is where the difficulty in assessing begins to come into play.

When you have a number of double-digit finishes in big tournaments it can mean a number of things; you could just be unlucky, you could make bad calls or poorly-timed moves in tough situations, or you could tighten up too much and find yourself blinded down into low-M territory. Without the benefit of having seen Schaffel play a lot it’s hard to determine which of these factors has contributed the most to his middle-of-the-road cashes. There’s no way to account for being unlucky, but if Schaffel’s inability earlier in his poker career to push through to the final table rests on either bad calls or moves or on tightening up too much then that has to drag his chances down a bit.

Whatever happens at the table, Schaffel will most likely be very deliberate about every decision he makes. That can lead to overthinking tough situations, but it should also make him difficult for his opponents to read. If he gets on the right end of a hand-over-hand situation, that deliberative nature could become a big thorn in the side of all but his most experienced opponents. I would expect Schaffel to be a bit unwilling to take full advantage of being on the button against the two big stacks on his left, Steven Begleiter and Eric Buchman. And if Phil Ivey and James Akenhead on his right decide to attack his blinds, I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to fold a wide range of hands that some others might play.

I put Schaffel’s chances in November at about 15/1.

From Riggstad:

Schaffel looks to be your standard player. That is a very good amateur who decided to take his game on the road and see how well he could do. Looks as if the guy has done some damage, but his position at the table is going to be a tough one for him. I would expect anyone watching this tournament to really not even notice him. Until something big happens. He doesn’t seem to be one for closing out finishes, and as Jason put it, who knows if that is bad luck or just poor decision making when getting deep.

I don’t know that the answer will be relevant. With his position it’s going to be difficult for him to take advantage of the deep stacks on his left. My assumptions are that Ivey, et al will steal them before he can. I don’t know if he will have it in him to play back. Unless of course he catches a rush. Then anything can happen. But all things being equal, Schaffel will have his hands full.

This may seem a bit harsh and maybe it’s a little bit of a reach but we go with what we got. Until this guy closes one out, he will be looked upon and judged by his results. Maybe, and hopefully for his friends and fans, this is the one. Anything can happen, and quite possibly he is taking the time to study his opponents and learn how he can adapt his game to overcome the obstacles set by his opponents, his position, and his stack.

I will set his line at +$1,500.

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