2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 3

Posted by AlCantHang | Filed under Bloggers on the Rail

2009 World Series of Poker Bracelets
Photo credit: Pokerati.com

There are just over two weeks remaining before the poker world once again focuses it’s attention upon the Rio Hotel and Casino where the 2009 November Nine will gather around a table and play for the world championship. The players are preparing themselves in different ways. Some with coaches, others trying to stay as lowkey and relaxed as possible, still others are practicing non-stop. Or if you are Phil Ivey you continue to pound away at the dead money sitting around the Bellagio poker room.

Today brings our third and final installment of the November Nine preview. I am joined by two bloggers to help handicap the 9 players at this year’s Main Event final table and we end it with the three smallest chip stacks. Phil Ivey is by far the biggest name but starts with just 9,765,000 in chips. “Those-in-the-know” have set his official odds more along the lines of the bigger stacks around the table, a credit to the experience and talent he’ll bring along.

This post also highlights the two non-US born players in Antoine Saout and James Akenhead. Saout is the unknown Frenchman while Akenhead is regular figure around the UK tournament scene with his poker playing friends. Both have plenty of work ahead of them if they wish to make a big run for the title.

Our two guest bloggers, “Spaceman” the consummate professional writer and “Riggstad” the half-breed poker player/gambler, give you their opinions below. Once again odds and lines are strictly for informational and educational purposes, any loses due to our information is on your head. If you use this information to win, we will accept any credit/reward.

Don’t forget to check out the ESPN broadcast over the next two weeks as the field goes from seven tables to just one. Day 7 will be shown on October 20th at 20:00ET and Day 8 on October 27th at the same time.

2009 November Nine chip counts:

Darvin Moon – 58,930,000
Eric Buchman – 34,800,000
Steven Begleiter – 29,885,000
Jeff Shulman = 19,580,000
Joe Cada – 13,215,000
Kevin Schaffel – 12,390,000
Phil Ivey – 9,765,000
Antoine Saout – 9,500,000
James Akenhead – 6,800,000

2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 1
2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 2
2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 3 after the jump:

Phil Ivey – Seat 3 – 9,765,000 chips (M = 15.5)
Current odds from 4/1 to 7/1

What is there I can really add to the biography of Phil Ivey? If you are coming here you probably know all there is about this player who avoids the spotlight like it’s his job. He has been called “the best poker player in the world”, in just about every various of the game, at any stakes, cash games or tournaments. He already has two WSOP bracelet for 2009, trying for his 3rd of the year and 8th bracelet overall. It was no secret that Ivey had several big bets with other players based on his performance this year, he backed up everything he said coming into the series.

His credentials are easy enough to track down. He earned his poker chops playing in the smokey Atlantic City card rooms before moving out to Las Vegas. His 7 WSOP bracelets ties him with poker legend Billy Baxter. If he wins the Main Event it will be the second time in his career he’s won 3 WSOP bracelets in the same year, he accomplished that feat back in 2002. His 8th bracelet would tie him with fellow Full Tilt pro Erik Seidel for 5th all-time. He has over $3,800,000 in WSOP career earnings and has gone over $12,000,000 overall. It is nearly impossible to judge how much money he has taken away from those poor fools willing to play with him at the nose-bleed Bellagio cash game tables. Away from the WSOP, Ivey also holds the record for most final tables in World Poker Tour events with 8 total and 1 title.

An interesting twist between Ivey’s bracelets and those held by 11 time winner Phil Hellmuth. While Hellmuth has yet to win a single bracelet in a non-Hold’em tournament, none of Ivey’s have come in Hold’em.

2000 – $2,500 Pot Limit Omaha
2002 – $2,500 7 Card Stud Hi/Lo
2002 – $2,500 S.H.O.E.
2002 – $1,500 7 Card Stud
2005 – $5,000 Pot Limit Omaha
2009 – $2,500 No-Limit 2-7 Draw
2009 – $2,500 Omaha/Stud Hi/Lo

Even with one of the shorter stacks remaining in the field, no one can feel terribly comfortable with Ivey still sticking around. The lines reflect this as he’s listed between 4/1 and 7/1 despite sitting so low in chips.

Here is what our bloggers have to say about Ivey’s chances.

From Spaceman:

Throughout the Main Event, Phil Ivey had the incredible good fortune of seeing player after player gift him with their stacks because they picked the wrong time – usually when they were drawing dead or close to it – to try and outplay him. (It seems that a couple of big bluffs from his past television appearances – including that nasty one against Paul Jackson at the Monte Carlo Millions – have paid big dividends for Ivey.) I like to call this the Rounders Effect – everyone’s Mike McDermott and they just have to know if they can bluff Johnny Chan. When the pro actually picks up a big hand he’s going to get paid for sure. One or two of those type of hands could make Ivey a big contender in a very short period of time.

As great as the Rounders Effect is for pros like Ivey, the flipside of it is that it makes these less-experienced players much harder to bluff; the cards become that much more important when someone is willing to call down with a pair of deuces on a Broadway-heavy board. That means that, all other things being equal, continuation bets with air are more likely to get called from Ivey than anyone else at the table. If he wants to become a factor in this tournament he’ll need to pick up some good cards when other players have slightly worse, but still playable, cards.

If Phil Ivey had just double the chips that he has coming into the final table I’m pretty sure I’d have to consider him a favorite in this tournament. But as it stands he’s in seventh place, so assessing his chances of winning are a lot more difficult. I think that this really rides on one question: just how aggressive will the world’s greatest poker player be in trying to double up early? If he puts on his Pro Face and attacks the table mercilessly, I think the Rounders Effect will come into play – and I think in the right situation it could even bite more experienced players like Jeff Shulman who can still get roped into wanting to be a hero on TV.

One big double-up through the right player could be huge for Ivey, but taking hands to showdown in big confrontations means risking your tournament life. If Ivey prefers to play some small-ball rather than going for the home run, I almost like his chances better. Still, his chance to win all hinges on doubling that stack a few times, and even when you’re Phil Ivey that can be a tall order. If he does manage to begin accumulating chips, the only thing that can stop him is bad luck.

Overall, I’d peg Ivey’s chances at about 9/1.

From Riggstad:

Well well, it comes down to this guy. The one attraction that most people are talking about. Phil Ivey. the greatest player to have played the game. The “Tiger Woods” of poker (which I think is an insult to Tiger). Phil is undoubtedly the one person on this table who has the skill set to win this tournament. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the chips. Yet Phil being Phil is the one most expect to walk away with this.

Jason wrote about his travels through the main event being very lucky. Not in the sense of being behind but being fortunate, if you will, to get action when he needed it. Possibly by players wanting to down the giant. Which is a feasible point to make. This, however, will not happen at the final table. Ivey will have his work cut out for him. He has outward pressure to win, none that are his own however. I don’t believe Phil is sitting at home planning out his best way to attack this table. If you look at his 2009 WSOP track record, you’ll see a top player who played extremely well and who ran extremely well.

One of the writers who covered the event told me there are two distinct Phil Ivey’s based on what he witnessed during the whole series. One who sits down at a table and hunkers down and plays to win. Everytime. He focuses, he plans, he strategizes, and plays every aspect of the table from stacks to position to opponent to even cards. Then there’s the other Phil Ivey who comes in just to take a shot. Like it’s a cold Wednesday at work and you go in just cause you have to.

I think this final table becomes historic not because Phil Ivey is there, but because HOW Phil Ivey will play. Stating that can only be done by assuming how he will play. So here it goes. I think Phil will take this table very slow at first, and try to grab an inclination of how others will proceed. He will test the waters with 3 and 4 bets just to see how his opponents respond. With that knowledge he will gain an even bigger edge against the table and have a real shot at overcoming such a chip deficit. That all being assumed bodes well for Phil. That’s the problem with assumptions. They are easy, and can be manipulated to further your forgone conclusions. I’m still going with it though.

Let me then assume that Phil does make it to the final 4. This is where History will be made. If Phil gets that deep, he will by far have his greatest advantage. History will be made when Phil wins or how he goes out with such a close shot of winning. For him to get so close yet let it slip away with only 3 or 4 players left will be historical because whether his elimination comes via a huge bad beat or some hand where is he out played on, or even just a cooler, it will be remembered as the tournament that Phil lost. It will be a shame for the guy who does win it. It won’t be remembered as the WSOP that “x” won. It will be remembered as the WSOP that Phil Ivery lost. History. Harrah’s might even have to put a poster up in the Amazon room of the 2009 WSOP Champion pictures as an inset with Phil Ivey looking defeated.

Ok, maybe that’s a little silly. But truly, his presence will add a level of competition to this table which will make it truly fun to watch. That being said I will set Ivey’s money line at +$500

Antoine Saout – Seat 8 – 9,500,000 chips (M = 15.08)
Current odds from 12/1 to 20/1

There is not much information to be found on one of our two final table players born outside the United States, this was the young Frenchman’s first trip to the World Series of Poker. Thanks to our friends at The Hendon Mob we do see he had a few small cashes before making his big run at the 2009 WSOP Main Event but it was nothing huge. Following his November Nine invitation he has several other results with his biggest being a final table appearance at the 2009 WSOP Europe Main Event, repeating Ivan Demidov’s final table feat of last year along with James Akenhead.

My friends tell me Saout is a monster online grinder but he will have his work cut out for him and will need to get lucky to take down this title. Working with very few chips, he has two big stacks to his left in Jeff Shulman and Darvin Moon.

The bloggers have this to say about Antoine Saout.

From Spaceman:

Antoine Saout is one of two players at this table who has no pressure on him whatsoever. He’s essentially freerolling at this point after having won his initial $10,000 buy-in to the Main Event through a cheapie online satellite, and as the second-shortest incoming stack there’s nobody out there who’s really going to expect very much of him. Saout has also made a few deep runs in big tournaments since July, giving him a chance to enjoy the spotlight away from the Rio as a member of the November Nine. I expect him to come in feeling loose and ready to pick a spot for making a move or two in an attempt to jump up the pay ladder a bit, since he won’t lose much if he’s the first one out.

Saout should get a few opportunities to make those kinds of moves, too. He’s sandwiched between Joe Cada and Jeff Shulman at the table, and both of them are stacked enough that they can fold to Saout in pressure situations without hurting their chances too much. And two spots to his left is the chip leader, Darvin Moon, whom I would characterize as the player at the table most likely to make a bad call for two reasons (he’s an amateur and he can afford to lose a few chips). If Saout can pick up a big hand and do a good enough acting job he might just double up at Moon’s expense.

Of course, the key here is picking up a big hand. Saout isn’t going to be able to afford to get involved in a lot of pots so he’ll have to be choosy about which ones he gets involved with. That doesn’t necessarily mean big cards, as he might find a good spot or two for getting involved with a speculative hand in late position. But what it does mean is he’ll be passing more often than he gets involved, and a player who’s sitting on the outside looking in when the final table begins often stays on the outside. If he doubles through a big stack I like his odds of jumping a few spots up the pay ladder, but I still think he has to be one of the biggest underdogs at the table to win the whole thing.

Overall, I’d put Saout’s chances at about 20/1.

From Riggstad:

Saout has about the same chip stack as Ivey does. But he’s no Ivey! That is, he doesn’t posses the experience that Ivey has. He most likely doesn’t possess the gamesmanship that Ivey has. My guess is that he will sit back and wait for a hand, and when he gets it, will play it fast.

That will lead to several things. Quick double ups or flat out elimination will be his fate. I don’t know much about him at all. He could be a fantastic seasoned player that nobody knows and he may have some chops outside of what he has proven already just by getting to the final table.

Poker isn’t golf though, and just getting to a final table could have been everything from luck to skill to a combination of both. You would like to think all skill, and most likely falls within a combination of both. But let’s face it. Luck could be the leading cause here. I know players who are very very good. Ones you have never even heard of. Ones that I would personally stake in a heads up match against Tom Dwan or Patrick Antonius. Maybe Antoine is that guy. Still given the information I have, I gotta see him as one of the least to make any noise here. Which means he will most likely win it all. I’ll set his mojo at + $1200.

James Akenhead – Seat 2 – 6,800,000 (M = 10.79)
Current odds from 17/1 to 22/1

Your official 2009 WSOP November Nine shortstack is James Akenhead, the UK player who is no stranger to the poker world. Akenhead came one spot away from winning his first WSOP bracelet during last year’s series when he lost heads up to Grant Hinkle. He’s primarily known on the Euro-side of the pond crushing the UK poker tours with a group of his poker playing friends. Prior to making the final table he signed on as a member of Team Full Tilt and has already made a final table in the $1,000,000 Guarantee.

When Bluff Europe asked him if poker came naturally to him, this is what he had to say:

“No. It didn’t. But I think I’m really good at learning. When something comes into my life that I’m interested in, I’m really determined to be good at it. It was the same with pool. When I started I was a really bad player, but two years later I was number 15 in the UK.”

When PokerNews interviewed him in September, Akenhead provided just a little foreshadowing with this statement:

“I am really excited, I’m not feeling the pressure at all, as soon as I get there I will be 100% focussed (sic) and playing the best I can. I really want to do well at the WSOPE this year; I want to do what Demidov did last year, not just for the money and the confidence but also for my profile. I really can’t wait for November, it’s going to be a lot of fun.”

Akenhead did indeed go on to final table the 2009 WSOP Europe Main Event along with Antoine Saout, duplicating the WSOP and WSOPE final tables of Ivan Demidov in 2008. He was unable to go any deeper finishing in 9th but it must be a boost to his confidence and chances when the November Nine kicks off. With the smallest stack at the table, Akenhead will have to find a place to double up to give him a chance to move up the payouts or the longshot title.

Here’s what our bloggers have to say about the shortstacked James Akenhead.

From Spaceman:

If Antoine Saout has no expectations place on him, James Akenhead should be the freewheeling spirit at this final table. With an M just over 10 to begin the night (and one which will dip into single-digit territory when the level goes up a half-hour into play) he’s certainly at a disadvantage next to everybody else, and he knows that. But he also proved at the WSOP Europe Main Event final table that he can nurse a short stack for a while and still choose his spots carefully.

If Akenhead does manage to pick up chips he can be one of the more dangerous players at the table. He’s proven repeatedly that he has the chops to go deep in big no-limit hold’em events, and he only missed a WSOP bracelet two years ago through misfortune. Of course, all the points that apply to Antoine Saout above hold true for Akenhead as well – and the key among them is that he’s the shortest stack at the table. In the end, I think the short stack is just far too much for Akenhead to overcome. He’s a very talented player with a bright future ahead of him, and the Main Event title might very well lie in that future – it just won’t be from the 2009 event.

I put Akenhead’s odds of winning at 23/1.

From Riggstad:

It really is a shame that Akenhead only has 10 bb’s left. He is a player that could prove a thorn in everyone’s side. He has proven time and time again that he has the chops to dominate at this level. There’s not really too much you can predict with this guy because of such a short stack and his chance have to be huge because it will basically come down to a few lucky flips, or 2 live cards even if he is to have a chance.

I would like to rewrite this if James managed to luck his stack up to about 18million with some chip accumulation but we don’t have that luxury. Or maybe we will in this game!

Aside from that I gotta put his line at + $2500. Good money if you can get it though because if he does chip up, he’ll be dangerous and give you a huge return on your dollar!