Poker From The Rail
a Poker Blog brought to you by Full Tilt Poker
Posted by AlCantHang | Filed under Bloggers on the Rail
Just a few short days before the remaining players in the 2010 World Series of Poker gather back at the Rio in Las Vegas to play down to the winner. The November Nine spent 3 plus months preparing for the biggest two days of poker in their careers, in the end we will have one player collect nearly $9,000,000 and a shiny new bracelet. The title will bring the additional prestige of being crowned the World Champion and shuffled around the world for interviews as the involuntary “ambassador of poker”. Such are the expectations after winning the WSOP Main Event.
We’ll spend the few days leading up to the first day of play highlighting the process some of the players went through preparing for their time on the big stage, pressure they’ve felt over the last months from influences outside of the game (family, tickets, endorsements, interviews, etc), as well as what they think their chances are with just 8 players between them and the title. Until then we bring you the final chapter of our November Nine Handicapping.
Our guest bloggers give you their thoughts on the smallest three stacks at the table. While they may not be favored by those making the odds, you will find the most well known pro, the only true amateur, and the shortstack who will be looking for some quick action if he can pick up a big hand. The Grinder, The Rookie, and The Shortie. You should already know about our distinguished panel of prognosticators in Jason “Spaceman” Kirk and Kevin Mathers so we’ll get right to it.
In addition to their thoughts, I’ve also attached the videos/advertisements produced for Michael Mizrachi and Soi Nguyen. They were rejected by ESPN because it removed some suspense about who would make the November Nine.
2010 World Series of Poker – November Nine Handicapping Part 1
2010 World Series of Poker – November Nine Handicapping Part 2
By chip count:
1 – Jonathan Duhamel – 65,975,000
2 – John Dolan – 46,250,000
3 – Joseph Cheong – 23,525,000
4 – John Racener – 19,050,000
5 – Matt Jarvis – 16,700,000
6 – Filippo Candio – 16,400,000
7 – Michael Mizrachi – 14,450,000
8 – Soi Nguyen – 9,650,000
9 – Jason Senti – 7,625,000
By seat assignment:
Seat 1 – Jason Senti – 7,625,000
Seat 2 – Joseph Cheong – 23,525,000
Seat 3 – John Dolan – 46,250,000
Seat 4 – Jonathan Duhamel – 65,975,000
Seat 5 – Michael Mizrachi – 14,450,000
Seat 6 – Matt Jarvis – 16,700,000
Seat 7 – John Racener – 19,050,000
Seat 8 – Filippo Candio – 16,400,000
Seat 9 – Soi Nguyen – 9,650,000
Michael Mizrachi – Seat 5 – 14,450,000 (M=18.06)
Current odds from 5/1 to 7/1 (+500 to +700)
Last year we had Phil Ivey, this year we get Michael “The Grinder” Mizrachi as the most recognizable professional at the Main Event final table. The comparisons with Ivey end there as Mizrachi came into the 2010 WSOP as one of those players carrying the dreaded “one of the best without a bracelet” title. He had the results away from the series but just a handful of painful close calls when a bracelet was on the line.
He began playing tournament poker in 2004 and won his first WPT title at the L.A. Poker Classic. In 2006 he was CardPlayer Magazine Player of the Year after several big results including his second WPT title at Borgata Winter Poker Open. He cashed seven times in the 2008 WSOP but with nearly $8,000,000 in career tournament earnings his best WSOP result was a third place finish. That all ended with the first open event in 2010 with the $50,000 Player’s Championship when he defeated the entire field including his brother Robert at the final table for his first bracelet.
Mizrachi is also mathematically eligible to tie Frank Kassela for the 2010 WSOP Player of the Year but I’m certain the bracelet and ~$9,000,000 are a more pressing concern on the “The Grinder”.
From Spaceman:
In some ways there is a ton of pressure on Michael Mizrachi at this year’s WSOP Main Event final table. He isn’t the only professional poker player at the table, but he is the only one recognized all over the world thanks to his many televised final table appearances and his long track record of winning. He is also the only remaining player who can tie Frank Kassela for this year’s WSOP Player of the Year award, needing to win the tournament to do so. That’s a lot to have on your mind with the biggest tournament title in the world – and a huge prize to boot – up for grabs.
Mizrachi had to fight against his nature to even make it to this point, noting after the lineup was set that he’d never folded so much in his life as he did on the final day of play in July. Understanding the magnitude of opportunity that making the final table and having a shot at the POY award would afford him, he locked down and survived the grueling final day. If he chooses to play his position in the same way as Phil Ivey did last year in a nearly identical chip position, that experience from July should come in handy. Of course, there’s one major difference between Mizrachi this year and Ivey last year: Mizrachi has a much better seating assignment than Ivey did. His decisions should be relatively easy in the early going since the stacks surrounding him are fairly similar to his own, whereas Ivey had a more dynamic group of stack sizes to contend with last year.
If Mizrachi doubles up, I love his chances to win this tournament; few players have the kind of track record in big tournaments that he has. Even if he only picks up smaller pots here and there, I think he will be a serious problem for at least half of his tablemates. But with a shortish stack, one early run of bad luck is all it will really take to sink him. The odds being offered him are a little bit skewed because of his popularity, so I can’t value him too highly, but lots of people will want to bet on him and I can’t really blame them.
A proven record as one of the world’s top poker pros, a decent seating assignment, but a stack on the short side at this final table and a skewed set of odds – if you absolutely have to bet on Mizrachi, take him as close as you can get to the +700 end of the spectrum.
From Kevmath:
The Grinder is this year’s Phil Ivey, the player the established pros hope takes down the title after years of lesser known players and amateurs winning the Main Event. Like Ivey last year, Mizrachi’s starts 7th in chips and his chances of winning have been highly overestimated. Mizrachi has to deal with the big stacks of Dolan and Duhamel acting in front of him, expect the Grinder to grind his way up to a fifth place finish.
Soi Nguyen – 9,650,000 – Seat 9 (M=12.06)
Current odds from 14/1 to 18.5/1 (+1,400 to +1,850)
Soi Nguyen comes into play on Saturday as the only true amateur remaining in the field, he has just one other cash on his resume which came after he was already locked up for a November appearance. The Main Event was his first ever WSOP event and he was often heard telling his tablemates he wasn’t 100% solid on what was happening. While it is entirely possible the rookie was in above his head, you would never know by the company he keeps such as former WSOP champions Steve Sung and JC Tran.
Nguyen works for a medical supply company and until now just considered poker as his hobby. He spent the down months studying the game and picking the brains of his professional friends. His lack of experience and shallow stack will make him a long shot to win it all but stranger things have happened.
From Spaceman:
As the only true amateur at this final table, there’s really zero pressure on Soi Nguyen. If he flames out early, it’s all because of his short stack and amateur status. If he hangs in there and makes it near the end – or even wins it – he’s a Cinderella story that will make ESPN’s producers very, very happy. With no worries on his mind, Nguyen will be free to enjoy the moment and make the most of his opportunity.
Admittedly, he’s facing an uphill battle as one of the table’s short stacks. If he does manage to pick up chips, he’ll be forced to play with some of the toughest players at the table to his left. And of course, there are some tough players on his right as well. As the tournament was winding down to this final table lineup, Nguyen didn’t seem to have much luck against his tablemates, dropping pots to Michael Mizrachi and Joseph Cheong. I honestly don’t expect that he’ll be able to put up much of a fight against them unless he’s the beneficiary of some extremely good cards.
The table’s only true amateur, a lack of pressure, but a short stack – if you’re going to bet on Nguyen, take him at +1700 or higher.
From Kevmath:
Soi Nguyen is the lone amateur at the final table, as well as the oldest player. Age doesn’t mean he has more experience, as the Main Event was Nguyen’s fourth live tournament. On the ESPN broadcasts, he’s been portraying himself as not knowing too much about various poker terminology. He’s good friends with Nam Le and some other California pros, so he could be trying to psych out his opponents. However, I expect Nguyen to be shoving with any two cards at the start against a field that’s expected to play more cautiously at the start. Unfortunately for Nguyen, I suspect Nguyen will run into a monster when he makes one of those moves, and be knocked out in ninth place.
Jason Senti – 7,625,000 – Seat 1 (M=9.53)
Current odds from 16/1 to 25/1 (+1,600 to +2,500)
Jason Senti comes to the final table with the smallest stack and perhaps the most obvious strategy at the resumption of play. With an M of under 10 his options will be limited. But if there is anyone at this final table that is capable of pulling the classic shortstack ninja plays it would be Senti.
“PBJaxx” to the online community, Senti is an instructor at Phil “OMGClayAiken” Galfond’s poker training site. He has successfully climbed his way up from the micro-limit cash games to know grinding away online in the $50/$100 games. It didn’t take long for the electrical engineering graduate to realize he had the talent and math skills to become a successfull poker player. He has plenty of work ahead of him if he wants to come from the back of the pack to win it all but it would be an interesting story.
From Spaceman:
Thanks to his position as the shortest stack, Jason Senti has the clearest game plan of any player at this final table: wait on a big hand and play it fast. If he can’t get a big hand in the early going, the path before him won’t become any more difficult – he’ll just have to find a semi-strong hand and make an all-in move. That clarity of mission will take all the pressure off Senti and put it on his opponents, who will all know what kinds of hands the Minnesota pro is going to play and will be faced with the prospect of doubling up the table short stack with a bad call.
The biggest problem for Senti is that he’ll find himself with a below-average chip stack even if he manages to double up. While it’s possible that his game plan might change if he were to find himself in that position, I think it’s much more likely that Senti would stick with the tight-is-right mentality and look to move up the pay ladder. It would take quite a run of cards to put him in position to start playing creative poker, and that’s nothing to bet on.
A clear game plan, but an uphill battle even if he manages to get back in the hunt – I wouldn’t take Senti at anything less than +2,500.
From Kevmath:
Jason Senti is good friends with forum favorite Phil “OMGClayAiken” Galfond, but his status as the shortest stack means he’ll be following Nguyen’s strategy and shoving early and often to accumulate chips. As a trainer at Galfond’s training site Bluefire Poker, Senti will have plenty of personal experience in working out a plan that will help him move up in the chip counts. Unfortunately, I don’t see Senti getting far at the final table, but will be able to get a pay jump after Nguyen’s elimination.
Tags: 2010 World Series of Poker, AlCantHang, Bloggers on the Rail, Guest Posts, Jason "Spaceman" Kirk, Jason Senti, Kevmath, Michael Mizrachi, November Nine, Soi Nguyen, WSOP
Posted by AlCantHang | Filed under Bloggers on the Rail
The players forming the 2010 November Nine are getting ready for their closeups on the biggest stage in poker. Just a few short weeks before all eyes turn towards the Penn & Teller Theater in Las Vegas as they will crown latest World Series of Poker Champion. We will watch a fine collection of young grinders who tip the scale with an average age right around 27 years old, even with Soi Nguyen’s 37 years on the earth skewing the number. Florida is well represented with 3 players and another 3 come from outside the United States (Canada is not yet the 51st state?). In our world here at Full Tilt Poker, we’re proud to have 7 of the 9 players representing the site with a great chance at glory.
With the date creeping closer we’ve decided to take a look at the remaining nine players to handicap their chances to win the biggest tournament of the year. I spent some time researching the various outlets who place odds on such things just to see what kind of numbers were floating around. The odds are basically in line with the chips counts with Michael “The Grinder” Mizrachi the only exception as the most accomplished player at the table. While I certainly have my opinions on how things will go at the final table, I thought it best to pull in some big guns to help handicap each player. Jason “Spaceman” Kirk and Kevin “Kevmath” Mathers have graciously decided to put their thoughts down and share them with the class.
Spaceman – One of the original poker bloggers who has worked in the poker industry for many years. He’s been everything from a tournament reporter to a published columnist. From home games to side events to world championship tournaments, he’s seen more hands of poker than the average person would even consider sane. It’s for this experience I recruited him to join along in helping us get a better feel of the players.
Kevmath – Quickly became a legend around the scene with what seems a bottomless pit of poker knowledge at his disposal. From his bat cave in New York he has established himself as one of the more interesting characters as he moderates forums, makes outstanding contributions to several sites, and generally has an answer to any poker question before anyone else. Due to his productivity, he’s often been accused of being a robot, SkyNet, or actually several people pretending to be one. As he begins to expand his horizons, I thought it would be a great idea to get his take on this year’s November Nine.
Part 2 brings us to the middle of the field, three players sporting similar stacks who will have to take advantage of every opportunity to pick up chips. John Racener, Matthew Jarvis, and Filippo Candio all drew seats together with short stacks to the right and big stack Duhamel on the left. Among those three you can find Racener with the best career results, Jarvis with the recent hot hand, and Candio doing whatever crazy Italian guys do to unwind.
In this version of our November Nine handicapping we’ve also included a look at the player videos put together by our creative team here at Full Tilt highlighting each of our 7 members of the 2010 November Nine. Those videos as well as our prognosticator’s thoughts can be found below.
Tags: 2010 World Series of Poker, AlCantHang, Bloggers on the Rail, Filippo Candio, Guest Posts, Jason "Spaceman" Kirk, John Racener, Kevmath, Matt Jarvis, November Nine, WSOP
Posted by AlCantHang | Filed under Bloggers on the Rail
My view from the heights
After 12 grinding days of poker and nearly 4 months with the 2009 World Series of Poker on “pause” we are now down to the time when a new WSOP Main Event Champion will be crowned. All nine players will shortly entered the Penn & Teller Theater to take their seats at the most coveted final table in the game. Phil Ivey will begin as the most famous and Darvin Moon will have the biggest stack. An ex-Wall Street banker, several young guns and a couple Euros will take their shot at being the last bracelet winner in 2009.
Play is schedule to begin at noon which is just two short hours from now. I will be camped out high above the stage with a bird’s eye view and bringing hourly updates as we whittle down the field. Come back to follow along with your favorite player at the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event final table.
Poker from the Rail 2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 1
Poker from the Rail 2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 2
Poker from the Rail 2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 3
Seat 1 – Darvin Moon – 58,930,000
Seat 2 – James Akenhead – 6,800,000
Seat 3 – Phil Ivey – 9,765,000
Seat 4 – Kevin Schaffel – 12,390,000
Seat 5 – Steven Begleiter – 29,885,000
Seat 6 – Eric Buchman – 34,800,000
Seat 7 – Joe Cada – 13,215,000
Seat 8 – Antoine Saout – 9,500,000
Seat 9 – Jeff Shulman – 19,580,000
11:30PT – The doors are open
The gates to the Penn & Teller Theater have been opened and the crowds of fans, friends, and spectators have begun pouring into the room to find their seats. The press box is elbow to elbow with outlets from all around the world. The players have completed their pre-game meeting with the WSOP staff including Commissioner Jeffrey Pollack. Chip bags are on the table and the dealers are preparing their setups.
The early line on fan noise has Joe Cada well ahead with a crew in yellow Michigan “Cada” t-shirts and mugging for the ESPN cameras. The Darvin Moon crowd is walking around with “heads on sticks”, not exactly sure where that is going. Poker legend Doyle Brunson has found the stage and will be giving the Shuffle Up and Deal command. Photographers are getting their last minute shots before the players are announced, the lovely Lacey Jones is prepping for hosting duties, Lon McCarren and Norm Chad are doing their rehearsals. Fellow Full Tilt blogger Michael Craig is in the house and ready to bring the action from up close.
In late minute player news, the word around town is that Steve Begleiter hired SnG player expert Jonathan Little as his couch for this “Sit n Go”.
13:00PT – Cards in the air
Getting under just a little over an hour later than scheduled, the cards are finally in the air.
Jeffrey Pollack, Lacey Jones, and Jack Effel all took their time at the microphone making announcements and warming up the crowd including the bracelet ceremony for Barry Shulman’s WSOP-E title. Lon McCarren and Norm Chad have have made their ESPN intros, and an honor guard made their appearance for the National Anthem. WSOP Tournament Director Jack Eiffel made the extended player introductions and the biggest ovation was for Phil Ivey followed by Joe Cada and Antoine Saout. The French are outnumbered but making plenty of noise. Jeff “Happy” Shulman received a polite round of applause.
Blinds will be at 120,000/240,000 with 30,000 ante for the next 7 minutes.
14:00PT – Faces in the crowd
Several big guns from Team Full Tilt have been spotted in the crowd to support Phil Ivey. Jen Harman and Marco Traniello are sitting on the stage along with Howard Lederer, Allen Cunningham and Perry Friedman. Phil Gordon is hanging around the Orchestra Pit and there has been a Chris Ferguson spotting.
After the first few orbits the crowd has settled down a little bit, only getting rowdy after a series of preflop battles. The French supporters have been as quiet so far as their boy Antoine Saout.
It took awhile before we saw the first flop and still haven’t seen a turn card. Very few flops, non-existent turns, and most pots being taken down with a preflop raise or a three-bet. They seem to be still feeling each other out and the blinds will not be forcing the action for a very long time. Begleiter and Cada appear to be the early aggressors.
Just 15 hands into the action and Phil Ivey found a hand worthy of pushing all-in behind a raise from Jeff Shulman. Joe Cada asked for a count and went in the tank for quite awhile before mucking, Shulman was not far behind. Shulman has spent the early part of the day making very odd, large opening raises pre-flop, perhaps this was the time for Ivey to look him up.
Shortly after the clock switched over the 2pm, Jack Effel announced an explicable 20 minute break after just an hour of action. This seems to indicate a very long day for our players and fans. When they return blinds will be at 150,000/30,000/40,000 ante for another hour.
You can find the rest of the live blog after the jump. A mere 5,000 words to describe 17 hours of action. Thanks for stopping by. Click below to read the rest of the story.
Tags: 2009 World Series of Poker, AlCantHang, Bloggers on the Rail, November Nine, Phil Ivey, WSOP
Posted by AlCantHang | Filed under Bloggers on the Rail
2009 World Series of Poker Main Event “November Nine”
The poker world is now gearing up to crown the 2009 World Series of Poker Champion. Just a few short weeks from now the final 9 players left standing in the Main Event will make their way back to the Rio Hotel and Casino to play down to the bracelet winner. Some players are well known while a few have come from nowhere with a chance at poker immortality. Over the next few days I will be joined by a few poker bloggers who will do their best to handicap the entire table from chip leader to short stack.
The odds provided are purely for entertainment sake. Unless you are in a country that allows such things, in that case feel free to use their insight to your favor. Two fellow poker bloggers have found the time to join along in my crazy attempt to enlighten, inform, and entertain. They both come from different backgrounds and shed a different light on the remaining players. Your Poker From the Rail Handicapping Team:
Spaceman – one of the original poker bloggers who has worked in the poker industry for many years. He’s been everything from a tournament reporter to a published columnist. From home games to side events to world championship tournaments, he’s seen more hands of poker than the average person would even consider sane. It’s for this experience I recruited him to join along in helping us get a better feel of the players as we get set to claim a new poker champion.
Riggstad – a many faceted individual who has ties to all parts of the poker world. His unique experience also involves witnessing players at every level of poker, from complete amateurs to some of the best players in the world. He brings his East Coast grinder perspective to the biggest poker tournament in the world.
Each installment will feature 3 players at the final table, starting with the chip leader and moving to the short stack. I’ve listed their current odds from various sources as well as a short bio. There is plenty of information below, feel free to leave a comment if you agree or disagree.
2009 November Nine Handicapping Part 2
2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 3
2009 November Nine Handicapping Part 1 is after the jump.
Tags: 2009 World Series of Poker, AlCantHang, Bloggers on the Rail, Darvin Moon, Eric Buchman, Guest Posts, Jason "Spaceman" Kirk, November Nine, Riggstad, Steven Begleiter, WSOP
Most Popular Posts
- (none)
Authors
Blogroll
Recent Posts
Recent Comments
sweet!...Disclaimer
The opinions expressed by this blog and those providing comments are theirs alone, and do not reflect the opinions of Full Tilt Poker. Full Tilt Poker is not responsible for the accuracy of any of the information supplied by the author of this blog nor any content contained herein.
