2009 World Series of Poker Bracelets
Photo credit: Pokerati.com

There are just over two weeks remaining before the poker world once again focuses it’s attention upon the Rio Hotel and Casino where the 2009 November Nine will gather around a table and play for the world championship. The players are preparing themselves in different ways. Some with coaches, others trying to stay as lowkey and relaxed as possible, still others are practicing non-stop. Or if you are Phil Ivey you continue to pound away at the dead money sitting around the Bellagio poker room.

Today brings our third and final installment of the November Nine preview. I am joined by two bloggers to help handicap the 9 players at this year’s Main Event final table and we end it with the three smallest chip stacks. Phil Ivey is by far the biggest name but starts with just 9,765,000 in chips. “Those-in-the-know” have set his official odds more along the lines of the bigger stacks around the table, a credit to the experience and talent he’ll bring along.

This post also highlights the two non-US born players in Antoine Saout and James Akenhead. Saout is the unknown Frenchman while Akenhead is regular figure around the UK tournament scene with his poker playing friends. Both have plenty of work ahead of them if they wish to make a big run for the title.

Our two guest bloggers, “Spaceman” the consummate professional writer and “Riggstad” the half-breed poker player/gambler, give you their opinions below. Once again odds and lines are strictly for informational and educational purposes, any loses due to our information is on your head. If you use this information to win, we will accept any credit/reward.

Don’t forget to check out the ESPN broadcast over the next two weeks as the field goes from seven tables to just one. Day 7 will be shown on October 20th at 20:00ET and Day 8 on October 27th at the same time.

2009 November Nine chip counts:

Darvin Moon – 58,930,000
Eric Buchman – 34,800,000
Steven Begleiter – 29,885,000
Jeff Shulman = 19,580,000
Joe Cada – 13,215,000
Kevin Schaffel – 12,390,000
Phil Ivey – 9,765,000
Antoine Saout – 9,500,000
James Akenhead – 6,800,000

2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 1
2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 2
2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 3 after the jump:

Phil Ivey – Seat 3 – 9,765,000 chips (M = 15.5)
Current odds from 4/1 to 7/1

What is there I can really add to the biography of Phil Ivey? If you are coming here you probably know all there is about this player who avoids the spotlight like it’s his job. He has been called “the best poker player in the world”, in just about every various of the game, at any stakes, cash games or tournaments. He already has two WSOP bracelet for 2009, trying for his 3rd of the year and 8th bracelet overall. It was no secret that Ivey had several big bets with other players based on his performance this year, he backed up everything he said coming into the series.

His credentials are easy enough to track down. He earned his poker chops playing in the smokey Atlantic City card rooms before moving out to Las Vegas. His 7 WSOP bracelets ties him with poker legend Billy Baxter. If he wins the Main Event it will be the second time in his career he’s won 3 WSOP bracelets in the same year, he accomplished that feat back in 2002. His 8th bracelet would tie him with fellow Full Tilt pro Erik Seidel for 5th all-time. He has over $3,800,000 in WSOP career earnings and has gone over $12,000,000 overall. It is nearly impossible to judge how much money he has taken away from those poor fools willing to play with him at the nose-bleed Bellagio cash game tables. Away from the WSOP, Ivey also holds the record for most final tables in World Poker Tour events with 8 total and 1 title.

An interesting twist between Ivey’s bracelets and those held by 11 time winner Phil Hellmuth. While Hellmuth has yet to win a single bracelet in a non-Hold’em tournament, none of Ivey’s have come in Hold’em.

2000 – $2,500 Pot Limit Omaha
2002 – $2,500 7 Card Stud Hi/Lo
2002 – $2,500 S.H.O.E.
2002 – $1,500 7 Card Stud
2005 – $5,000 Pot Limit Omaha
2009 – $2,500 No-Limit 2-7 Draw
2009 – $2,500 Omaha/Stud Hi/Lo

Even with one of the shorter stacks remaining in the field, no one can feel terribly comfortable with Ivey still sticking around. The lines reflect this as he’s listed between 4/1 and 7/1 despite sitting so low in chips.

Here is what our bloggers have to say about Ivey’s chances.

From Spaceman:

Throughout the Main Event, Phil Ivey had the incredible good fortune of seeing player after player gift him with their stacks because they picked the wrong time – usually when they were drawing dead or close to it – to try and outplay him. (It seems that a couple of big bluffs from his past television appearances – including that nasty one against Paul Jackson at the Monte Carlo Millions – have paid big dividends for Ivey.) I like to call this the Rounders Effect – everyone’s Mike McDermott and they just have to know if they can bluff Johnny Chan. When the pro actually picks up a big hand he’s going to get paid for sure. One or two of those type of hands could make Ivey a big contender in a very short period of time.

As great as the Rounders Effect is for pros like Ivey, the flipside of it is that it makes these less-experienced players much harder to bluff; the cards become that much more important when someone is willing to call down with a pair of deuces on a Broadway-heavy board. That means that, all other things being equal, continuation bets with air are more likely to get called from Ivey than anyone else at the table. If he wants to become a factor in this tournament he’ll need to pick up some good cards when other players have slightly worse, but still playable, cards.

If Phil Ivey had just double the chips that he has coming into the final table I’m pretty sure I’d have to consider him a favorite in this tournament. But as it stands he’s in seventh place, so assessing his chances of winning are a lot more difficult. I think that this really rides on one question: just how aggressive will the world’s greatest poker player be in trying to double up early? If he puts on his Pro Face and attacks the table mercilessly, I think the Rounders Effect will come into play – and I think in the right situation it could even bite more experienced players like Jeff Shulman who can still get roped into wanting to be a hero on TV.

One big double-up through the right player could be huge for Ivey, but taking hands to showdown in big confrontations means risking your tournament life. If Ivey prefers to play some small-ball rather than going for the home run, I almost like his chances better. Still, his chance to win all hinges on doubling that stack a few times, and even when you’re Phil Ivey that can be a tall order. If he does manage to begin accumulating chips, the only thing that can stop him is bad luck.

Overall, I’d peg Ivey’s chances at about 9/1.

From Riggstad:

Well well, it comes down to this guy. The one attraction that most people are talking about. Phil Ivey. the greatest player to have played the game. The “Tiger Woods” of poker (which I think is an insult to Tiger). Phil is undoubtedly the one person on this table who has the skill set to win this tournament. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the chips. Yet Phil being Phil is the one most expect to walk away with this.

Jason wrote about his travels through the main event being very lucky. Not in the sense of being behind but being fortunate, if you will, to get action when he needed it. Possibly by players wanting to down the giant. Which is a feasible point to make. This, however, will not happen at the final table. Ivey will have his work cut out for him. He has outward pressure to win, none that are his own however. I don’t believe Phil is sitting at home planning out his best way to attack this table. If you look at his 2009 WSOP track record, you’ll see a top player who played extremely well and who ran extremely well.

One of the writers who covered the event told me there are two distinct Phil Ivey’s based on what he witnessed during the whole series. One who sits down at a table and hunkers down and plays to win. Everytime. He focuses, he plans, he strategizes, and plays every aspect of the table from stacks to position to opponent to even cards. Then there’s the other Phil Ivey who comes in just to take a shot. Like it’s a cold Wednesday at work and you go in just cause you have to.

I think this final table becomes historic not because Phil Ivey is there, but because HOW Phil Ivey will play. Stating that can only be done by assuming how he will play. So here it goes. I think Phil will take this table very slow at first, and try to grab an inclination of how others will proceed. He will test the waters with 3 and 4 bets just to see how his opponents respond. With that knowledge he will gain an even bigger edge against the table and have a real shot at overcoming such a chip deficit. That all being assumed bodes well for Phil. That’s the problem with assumptions. They are easy, and can be manipulated to further your forgone conclusions. I’m still going with it though.

Let me then assume that Phil does make it to the final 4. This is where History will be made. If Phil gets that deep, he will by far have his greatest advantage. History will be made when Phil wins or how he goes out with such a close shot of winning.  For him to get so close yet let it slip away with only 3 or 4 players left will be historical because whether his elimination comes via a huge bad beat or some hand where is he out played on, or even just a cooler, it will be remembered as the tournament that Phil lost. It will be a shame for the guy who does win it. It won’t be remembered as the WSOP that “x” won. It will be remembered as the WSOP that Phil Ivery lost. History. Harrah’s might even have to put a poster up in the Amazon room of the 2009 WSOP Champion pictures as an inset with Phil Ivey looking defeated.

Ok, maybe that’s a little silly. But truly, his presence will add a level of competition to this table which will make it truly fun to watch. That being said I will set Ivey’s money line at +$500

Antoine Saout – Seat 8 – 9,500,000 chips (M = 15.08)
Current odds from 12/1 to 20/1

There is not much information to be found on one of our two final table players born outside the United States, this was the young Frenchman’s first trip to the World Series of Poker. Thanks to our friends at The Hendon Mob we do see he had a few small cashes before making his big run at the 2009 WSOP Main Event but it was nothing huge. Following his November Nine invitation he has several other results with his biggest being a final table appearance at the 2009 WSOP Europe Main Event, repeating Ivan Demidov’s final table feat of last year along with James Akenhead.

My friends tell me Saout is a monster online grinder but he will have his work cut out for him and will need to get lucky to take down this title. Working with very few chips, he has two big stacks to his left in Jeff Shulman and Darvin Moon.

The bloggers have this to say about Antoine Saout.

From Spaceman:

Antoine Saout is one of two players at this table who has no pressure on him whatsoever. He’s essentially freerolling at this point after having won his initial $10,000 buy-in to the Main Event through a cheapie online satellite, and as the second-shortest incoming stack there’s nobody out there who’s really going to expect very much of him. Saout has also made a few deep runs in big tournaments since July, giving him a chance to enjoy the spotlight away from the Rio as a member of the November Nine. I expect him to come in feeling loose and ready to pick a spot for making a move or two in an attempt to jump up the pay ladder a bit, since he won’t lose much if he’s the first one out.

Saout should get a few opportunities to make those kinds of moves, too. He’s sandwiched between Joe Cada and Jeff Shulman at the table, and both of them are stacked enough that they can fold to Saout in pressure situations without hurting their chances too much. And two spots to his left is the chip leader, Darvin Moon, whom I would characterize as the player at the table most likely to make a bad call for two reasons (he’s an amateur and he can afford to lose a few chips). If Saout can pick up a big hand and do a good enough acting job he might just double up at Moon’s expense.

Of course, the key here is picking up a big hand. Saout isn’t going to be able to afford to get involved in a lot of pots so he’ll have to be choosy about which ones he gets involved with. That doesn’t necessarily mean big cards, as he might find a good spot or two for getting involved with a speculative hand in late position. But what it does mean is he’ll be passing more often than he gets involved, and a player who’s sitting on the outside looking in when the final table begins often stays on the outside. If he doubles through a big stack I like his odds of jumping a few spots up the pay ladder, but I still think he has to be one of the biggest underdogs at the table to win the whole thing.

Overall, I’d put Saout’s chances at about 20/1.

From Riggstad:

Saout has about the same chip stack as Ivey does. But he’s no Ivey! That is, he doesn’t posses the experience that Ivey has. He most likely doesn’t possess the gamesmanship that Ivey has. My guess is that he will sit back and wait for a hand, and when he gets it, will play it fast.

That will lead to several things. Quick double ups or flat out elimination will be his fate. I don’t know much about him at all. He could be a fantastic seasoned player that nobody knows and he may have some chops outside of what he has proven already just by getting to the final table.

Poker isn’t golf though, and just getting to a final table could have been everything from luck to skill to a combination of both. You would like to think all skill, and most likely falls within a combination of both. But let’s face it. Luck could be the leading cause here. I know players who are very very good. Ones you have never even heard of. Ones that I would personally stake in a heads up match against Tom Dwan or Patrick Antonius. Maybe Antoine is that guy. Still given the information I have, I gotta see him as one of the least to make any noise here. Which means he will most likely win it all. I’ll set his mojo at + $1200.

James Akenhead – Seat 2 – 6,800,000 (M = 10.79)
Current odds from 17/1 to 22/1

Your official 2009 WSOP November Nine shortstack is James Akenhead, the UK player who is no stranger to the poker world. Akenhead came one spot away from winning his first WSOP bracelet during last year’s series when he lost heads up to Grant Hinkle. He’s primarily known on the Euro-side of the pond crushing the UK poker tours with a group of his poker playing friends. Prior to making the final table he signed on as a member of Team Full Tilt and has already made a final table in the $1,000,000 Guarantee.

When Bluff Europe asked him if poker came naturally to him, this is what he had to say:

“No. It didn’t. But I think I’m really good at learning. When something comes into my life that I’m interested in, I’m really determined to be good at it. It was the same with pool. When I started I was a really bad player, but two years later I was number 15 in the UK.”

When PokerNews interviewed him in September, Akenhead provided just a little foreshadowing with this statement:

“I am really excited, I’m not feeling the pressure at all, as soon as I get there I will be 100% focussed (sic) and playing the best I can. I really want to do well at the WSOPE this year; I want to do what Demidov did last year, not just for the money and the confidence but also for my profile. I really can’t wait for November, it’s going to be a lot of fun.”

Akenhead did indeed go on to final table the 2009 WSOP Europe Main Event along with Antoine Saout, duplicating the WSOP and WSOPE final tables of Ivan Demidov in 2008. He was unable to go any deeper finishing in 9th but it must be a boost to his confidence and chances when the November Nine kicks off. With the smallest stack at the table, Akenhead will have to find a place to double up to give him a chance to move up the payouts or the longshot title.

Here’s what our bloggers have to say about the shortstacked James Akenhead.

From Spaceman:

If Antoine Saout has no expectations place on him, James Akenhead should be the freewheeling spirit at this final table. With an M just over 10 to begin the night (and one which will dip into single-digit territory when the level goes up a half-hour into play) he’s certainly at a disadvantage next to everybody else, and he knows that. But he also proved at the WSOP Europe Main Event final table that he can nurse a short stack for a while and still choose his spots carefully.

If Akenhead does manage to pick up chips he can be one of the more dangerous players at the table. He’s proven repeatedly that he has the chops to go deep in big no-limit hold’em events, and he only missed a WSOP bracelet two years ago through misfortune. Of course, all the points that apply to Antoine Saout above hold true for Akenhead as well – and the key among them is that he’s the shortest stack at the table. In the end, I think the short stack is just far too much for Akenhead to overcome. He’s a very talented player with a bright future ahead of him, and the Main Event title might very well lie in that future – it just won’t be from the 2009 event.

I put Akenhead’s odds of winning at 23/1.

From Riggstad:

It really is a shame that Akenhead only has 10 bb’s left. He is a player that could prove a thorn in everyone’s side. He has proven time and time again that he has the chops to dominate at this level. There’s not really too much you can predict with this guy because of such a short stack and his chance have to be huge because it will basically come down to a few lucky flips, or 2 live cards even if he is to have a chance.

I would like to rewrite this if James managed to luck his stack up to about 18million with some chip accumulation but we don’t have that luxury. Or maybe we will in this game!

Aside from that I gotta put his line at + $2500. Good money if you can get it though because if he does chip up, he’ll be dangerous and give you a huge return on your dollar!

Post from: Poker From The Rail

2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 3

Related posts:

1. 2009 World Series of Poker – November Nine Set
2. 2009 World Series of Poker – November Nine On The Horizon
3. 2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 2

The 2009 World Series of Poker Championship bracelet awaits the November Nine winner
Photo credit: flipchip at LasVegasVegas.com

The field is into double digits on the ESPN Main Event broadcasts and you start to see some of your November Nine players pull to the front. Tuesday’s show finally gave everyone a little taste of Darvin Moon’s run through the Main Event, the man couldn’t miss. Billy Kopp also starts to build a massive chip castle setting up very nicely for the Day 8 broadcast when the two go to war. Other players also spent this last episode donating chips to Phil Ivey, even when he didn’t have the goods he would flop golden. “You know I can have a hand once in awhile, right?” he told another player. November Nine players James Akenhead, Joe Cada, and Steve Begleiter began to get some exposure as the field narrowed. Still not seeing too much mention of Eric Buchman, Kevin Schaffel or Antoine Saout but those three will show up very soon. Nicole Peppe was eliminated in this latest broadcast leaving Leo Margets as the “Last Woman Standing” in the Main Event.

There are just a few episodes remaining before the final players gather themselves back at the Rio to play down to the champion. Last week I brought you Part 1 of a series attempting to gather a few friends together and handicap the November Nine for entertainment purposes. I was joined by professional writer “Spaceman” and semi-pro donk “Riggstad”, both shared their thoughts on how the top 3 chip leaders would fair. This week we move onto the middle three stacks with Jeff Shulman, Joe Cada, and Kevin Shaffel. Shulman is the polarizing player, Cada the young internet professional, Shaffel the amateur crashing on his friend’s couch in Florida. Another interesting cast of characters.  You can find the link below for Part 1 and Part 2 is after the jump.

2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 1
2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 3

2009 November Nine chip counts:

Darvin Moon – 58,930,000
Eric Buchman – 34,800,000
Steven Begleiter – 29,885,000
Jeff Shulman = 19,580,000
Joe Cada – 13,215,000
Kevin Schaffel – 12,390,000
Phil Ivey – 9,765,000
Antoine Saout – 9,500,000
James Akenhead – 6,800,000

Jeff Shulman – Seat 9 – 19,580,000 chips (M = 31.08)
Current odds from 4/1 to 11/2

Other than Phil Ivey, Jeff “Happy” Shulman is the most well known player at the final table. He is the president and editor of the CardPlayer media empire owned by his father Barry Shulman.  In the short history of the November Nine, Shulman will be the first player to with any WSOP Main Event table experience. Back in 2000 Shulman entered the final 9 with a chipstack near the top but lost several big hands to eventual winner Chris “Jesus” Ferguson. Shulman finished 7th that year for his best and biggest finish to date. All told he has 14 cashes in the World Series of Poker (I’m excluding his 3rd place finish in a Media Charity event) and this will be his 4th WSOP final table. Shulman has over $1,300,000 in career tournament earnings but has no cashes since April 2008.

In a nod towards the explosion of poker, Shulman received $146,000 for his 7th place finish in 2000. If you finished between 37th and 45th in this year’s World Series of Poker Main Event you received $178,857.

For those around the poker world, Jeff Shulman is also the player who said promised to “throw it in the garbage” if he won the Main Event bracelet. Shulman has since clarified his statement saying that he would not actually throw the bracelet away, but would find something interesting to do with it. He has an ongoing beef with how the WSOP is now run by those in charge and seems to be using his newly elevated status to bring his issues to the front. In a Washington Post chat session on October 5th he was asked about his opinion on Harrahs and the WSOP. Among his complaints I found this statement:

“They have devalued the bracelets by having too many events and adding Europe.”

In other poker news, Barry Shulman (father of Jeff) won the 2009 World Series of Poker Europe Main Event bracelet. Presented with no editorial comment whatsoever.

Jeff Shulman has also gone with the decision to hire a “coach” to prepare for the Main Event final table.  He chose none other than 11 time bracelet winner Phil Hellmuth.  It will be interesting to see what effect that will have on his game.  He will begin the day sitting 4th in chips and getting cozy with the dealer in the 9 Seat. Massive stack Darvin Moon is to his left and shortstack Antoine Saout is to his right.

Our poker prognosticators have this to say about Shulman:

From Spaceman:

Jeff Shulman has demonstrated skill in a variety of poker variants, cashing in limit hold’em, pot-limit hold’em, stud hi-lo, pot-limit Omaha, and several mixed-game events. However, he’s not exactly known for being a closer; his last win that wasn’t in a made-for-TV single table tournament came five years ago in an Ultimate Poker Challenge event that had a field of 36 players, and he only had two tournament wins prior to that one.

For the most part Shulman relies on playing a tight-aggressive game, meaning that if the cards don’t come he’s at a relative disadvantage to those at the table who are willing to come in with lesser hands. However, if the table plays too passively he’s more than capable of shifting into high gear and taking control; in the Washington Post chat he told readers that gear served him well through the first three days of this tournament. Assuming that the action slows down at some point, the two keys to whether Shulman’s top gear will work will be his position at the table and how many players remain in contention at the time.

With short stack Antoine Saout on Shulman’s direct right and the slightly better-stacked Joe Cada two spots to his right, the CardPlayer editor will probably face some pressure on his blinds as these two look to exploit their positional advantage. But he’ll also have the ability to take down valuable pots by applying more pressure against these shorter stacks out of the blinds, which signals a much stronger hand than aggression from late position. Bad timing in making a move on these two guys would mean losing some chips, but Shulman can afford a misstep or two before he finds himself in desperate straits.

On Shulman’s direct left is the chip leader, Darvin Moon. If Moon were the kind of player who could switch gears easily that would be a pretty big disadvantage for Shulman, but Moon’s amateur status means that Shulman will probably look to see a lot of flops against him in the hopes of hitting one hard and getting Moon to overcommit when he hits a slightly worse hand. All it would take to make Shulman a serious contender would be a single double-up through the chip leader. One spot further to the left is short stack James Akenhead; the Brit is definitely dangerous if he has chips, but unless he manages to catch a big hand in the early going Shulman should be able to pilfer his blinds almost at will.

Shulman himself has said in the press that he’ll be under a lot of pressure in November. As the editor of CardPlayer magazine, the son of the reigning WSOP Europe Main Event champion, the only player in this group to have previously made the Main Event final table, the student of 11-time-bracelet-winning blowhard Phil Hellmuth, and the most well-known player with a decent-sized stack at this final table, Shulman probably has more expectations placed on him than any other player at the table. Given all those factors, he could be forgiven if he were to find himself having a hard time focusing on the task at hand. But he’s decently stacked and if he manages to take a nice pot or two from the more inexperienced chip leader on his left, Shulman could have a real chance at winning. It all depends on how he handles the very real psychological pressure.

Overall, I’d put Shulman’s chances of winning at about 13/2.

From Riggstad:

Ever hear of a thing called Karma? How about Murphy’s law? What am I referring to? How about the statement Shulman made about throwing the bracelet away. Or maybe he said he wouldn’t accept it. Either way his point was made. CardPlayer didn’t exactly like its treatment by Harrahs when they were shut out of reporting the WSOP a few years back and Shulman hasn’t forgotten. His getting deep into the final table would be a huge story aside from the poker playing it will take to get there. That’s what gets me to my points. Or Jason’s points really.

Shulman has proven to be a nut peddler. That’s not saying he won’t or can’t switch it up, his training with Hellmuth will help. I’m sure the best player ever in the world will use this training not just to point out how to play NLHE final tables, but will suggest how to play against the competition that are known factors and how they will play.

Shulman certainly has an opportunity to do extremely well. His image is not unknown but it could work if he changes it up out of the gates.

Shulman also has a tone of experience and in the same way I write about Begleiter, I don’t know that anything from 9th to 2nd would mean anything to Jeff. He’s another “First or Lose” player at this table. The time between July and November is most likely more important to Shulman than any other player in terms of preparing for this final table. He has a good trainer, he has a ton of experience, he has a boatload of data to research, and he has the time. How he uses that time in preparation for the final table will give him the largest advantage of any other player. Because of that I will put him as a favorite at + $350.

Joe “jcada99″ Cada – Seat 7 – 13,215,000 chips (M = 20.98)
Current odds from 10/1 to 15/1

At first glance Joe Cada seems to be the big unknown coming into the final table. He just recently turned 21 and this year was his first at the WSOP tables. Not a bad start to his young career with 2 cashes in preliminary events. That brought his live tournament earnings up to just $28,000. But as usual when researching the young guns in the poker world, it’s necessary to dig a little deeper and peer into their online resume. That’s where things are a little more interesting with our 5th place chip stack.

Going by the online name of “jcada99″ he has built up some big online victories, pulling in over $500,000 in Full Tilt tournaments alone. His biggest score was taking down the $750,000 Guarantee in January ‘08 for nearly $150,000, then just under a year ago when he banked $49,000 for winning The Sunday Mulligan. His biggest score since the WSOP Main Event was a second place finish in the $200,000 Guarantee ($150 with rebuys) just 4 days after returning home from booking his November Nine invitation.

Cada began his live poker career by taking advantage of his geography. While the age limit to play in a U.S. casino is 21 years old, living in Michigan allowed him to cross over into Canada and try his hand at the young age of 18. He says he’s mainly a cash game player with just a few excursions into the tournament world. He was encouraged to expand his game by friend and fellow Michigan resident Dean Hamrick (last year’s unfortunate November Nine bubble boy). His odds are floating between 10/1 and 15/1 which is the first big leap after Shulman’s 4/1. If Cada can channel his online success to this final table he will supplant Peter Eastgate as the youngest Main Event winner, just a year after Eastgate took that distinction away from Phil Hellmuth.

Our poker bloggers have this to say about Joe “jcada99″ Cada’s chances:

From Spaceman:

Joe Cada shares a lot of similarities with last year’s champion, Peter Eastgate, and they go beyond the obvious age factor. Like Cada this year, Eastgate came in to last year’s final table in the middle of the pack. Also like Cada, Eastgate was an online player who had seen as many hands by the age of 21 as professionals used to see in a decade of play (though Cada has a fair bit of live experience as well). And most importantly of all, Eastgate was overlooked as a contender for the title – much like Cada this year.

I think it’s a mistake to discount Cada’s chances in this tournament. He has a solid understanding of the math behind the game, so he won’t be chasing draws at the wrong time and he’ll also be able to make advanced plays based on implied odds. And with so much online experience, this 21-year-old also has a lot of final table experience that should translate into picking his spots well. Over the course of the last day leading up to the final table Cada demonstrated a fearless approach to accumulating chips, and he also demonstrated an ability to stay cool under pressure after having his A-A cracked by Jamie Robbins’ T-T. Both of those traits should serve him well at a table where he has more experience than about half of his opponents.

On Cada’s right are two of the three biggest stacks at the table, Eric Buchman and Steven Begleiter. Having position on these two will give Cada ample opportunity to make a few moves against players who can afford to give up a pot if they sense that they’re in trouble, and if he manages to catch a break in the early going and chip up then that position will become an effective weapon.

To his left are short-stacked Frenchman Antoine Saout and our fourth-place man, Jeff Shulman. Given his experience and aggressive style, it won’t be a big surprise to see Cada lean on both of these guys pretty heavily when he’s on the button. You can also expect him to get away from trouble spots pretty easily.

The key for Cada is going to be chip accumulation. If he’s able to build his stack, especially at the expense of Buchman or Begleiter, he’s going to be a serious threat to win. But if he takes a hit early his chances will mostly depend on a little help from the deck.

All told, I’d put Cada’s chances of winning at about 9/1.

From Riggstad:

This player is very interesting to me. I also see the comparisons between Eastgate and Cada. Chip stack, experience, and so on. But this guy has shown a very mature attitude during the whole event. He kind of reminds me of a very young Barry Greenstein. That being said he has his work cut out for him.

Chip accumulation is going to be a must, and with two monster stacks on the table it could prove to be fairly easy. The determination of that is going to be how the rest of the table plays. If the big stacks come out speeding and playing very fast and hard, Cada could be in a good spot. Of course, the same could be said if the big stacks play very tentatively. That could give Cada a good chance at picking up some nice sized pre flop pots. The question becomes if he will be the only guy vying for those uncontested pots. I think Mr. Ivey might have a thing or two to say about that.

The point I am trying to make is that Cada is one of the players at the table who needs to rely on luck the least in terms of skill and mind set. Unfortunately, I think his chances of winning the whole thing rely wholly on circumstance and luck. Circumstance in that he will need things to go perfectly in any given hand. Get raised into when he’s holding the nuts, be bluffed into when holding the goods, and have action when he does have hands. Luck in the sense that when he does make a move, he either doesn’t do it against a made hand, or he catches up. OK, OK, that seems very standard for anyone to win a tournament, but I don’t see him being able to grind his way to the win. He will need a fast start to scare off the bigger stacks in the middle portions. If that happens, look out. He will be tough to beat.

I’ll set the money line on him at +600.

Kevin Schaffel – Seat 4 – 12,390,000 chips (M = 19.67)
Current odds from 12/1 to 15/1

It’s not easy to categorize Kevin Schaffel. He’s certainly not an amateur, making the decision to jump into full time poker play just a little over 18 months ago, but it’s tough to slot him anywhere. He concentrates mostly on grinding it away in the cash games at his local Florida card rooms and traveling to various big tournaments. This year is his second deep run in the WSOP Main Event, he finished 42nd in 2004 in the tournament eventually won by Greg Raymer. He only has one other WSOP cash in his career and he’s already guaranteed his biggest tournament payday with the $1.2million check already in the bank. His career total before this series was just over $100,000.

His bankroll received another boost just a little over a month after reaching the WSOP Main Event final table when he entered the WPT Legends of Poker tournament at the Bicycle Casino. Whether it was a continued heater, his boosted confidence from Vegas, or a good player rising to the top, he had another huge run. 279 players paid up $10,000 for the tournament and Schaffel outlasted all but Prahlad Friedman to book a $470,000 day for second place.

He credits patience and a little luck for his run to the November Nine. At one point early in the Main Event he found himself drawing thin after flopping a set of tens versus a flopped straight. The board paired on the river and we’ll have to wait until November to write the final chapter on his tournament. He’ll restart the final table sitting with Phil Ivey (9,765,000) on his right and Steven Begleiter (29,885,000) on his left.

From Spaceman:

I find Schaffel’s chances at this final table the hardest of all to pinpoint. His run at the Legends of Poker proved that he has some very real poker skills and that he can hang in there with more experienced players, which bodes well for him. But he also has a number of near-misses in other big tournaments on his resume, which is where the difficulty in assessing begins to come into play.

When you have a number of double-digit finishes in big tournaments it can mean a number of things; you could just be unlucky, you could make bad calls or poorly-timed moves in tough situations, or you could tighten up too much and find yourself blinded down into low-M territory. Without the benefit of having seen Schaffel play a lot it’s hard to determine which of these factors has contributed the most to his middle-of-the-road cashes. There’s no way to account for being unlucky, but if Schaffel’s inability earlier in his poker career to push through to the final table rests on either bad calls or moves or on tightening up too much then that has to drag his chances down a bit.

Whatever happens at the table, Schaffel will most likely be very deliberate about every decision he makes. That can lead to overthinking tough situations, but it should also make him difficult for his opponents to read. If he gets on the right end of a hand-over-hand situation, that deliberative nature could become a big thorn in the side of all but his most experienced opponents. I would expect Schaffel to be a bit unwilling to take full advantage of being on the button against the two big stacks on his left, Steven Begleiter and Eric Buchman. And if Phil Ivey and James Akenhead on his right decide to attack his blinds, I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to fold a wide range of hands that some others might play.

I put Schaffel’s chances in November at about 15/1.

From Riggstad:

Schaffel looks to be your standard player. That is a very good amateur who decided to take his game on the road and see how well he could do. Looks as if the guy has done some damage, but his position at the table is going to be a tough one for him. I would expect anyone watching this tournament to really not even notice him. Until something big happens. He doesn’t seem to be one for closing out finishes, and as Jason put it, who knows if that is bad luck or just poor decision making when getting deep.

I don’t know that the answer will be relevant. With his position it’s going to be difficult for him to take advantage of the deep stacks on his left. My assumptions are that Ivey, et al will steal them before he can. I don’t know if he will have it in him to play back. Unless of course he catches a rush. Then anything can happen. But all things being equal, Schaffel will have his hands full.

This may seem a bit harsh and maybe it’s a little bit of a reach but we go with what we got. Until this guy closes one out, he will be looked upon and judged by his results. Maybe, and hopefully for his friends and fans, this is the one. Anything can happen, and quite possibly he is taking the time to study his opponents and learn how he can adapt his game to overcome the obstacles set by his opponents, his position, and his stack.

I will set his line at +$1,500.

Post from: Poker From The Rail

2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 2

Related posts:

1. 2009 World Series of Poker – November Nine Set
2. 2009 November Nine – Cada and Moon Heads Up for Championship
3. 2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 1

The poker world is now gearing up to crown the 2009 World Series of Poker Champion.  Just a few short weeks from now the final 9 players left standing in the Main Event will make their way back to the Rio Hotel and Casino to play down to the bracelet winner.  Some players are well known while a few have come from nowhere with a chance at poker immortality. Over the next few days I will be joined by a few poker bloggers who will do their best to handicap the entire table from chip leader to short stack.

The odds provided are purely for entertainment sake. Unless you are in a country that allows such things, in that case feel free to use their insight to your favor. Two fellow poker bloggers have found the time to join along in my crazy attempt to enlighten, inform, and entertain. They both come from different backgrounds and shed a different light on the remaining players. Your Poker From the Rail Handicapping Team:

Spaceman – one of the original poker bloggers who has worked in the poker industry for many years.  He’s been everything from a tournament reporter to a published columnist.  From home games to side events to world championship tournaments, he’s seen more hands of poker than the average person would even consider sane.  It’s for this experience I recruited him to join along in helping us get a better feel of the players as we get set to claim a new poker champion.

Riggstad – a many faceted individual who has ties to all parts of the poker world.  His unique experience also involves witnessing players at every level of poker, from complete amateurs to some of the best players in the world.  He brings his East Coast grinder perspective to the biggest poker tournament in the world.

Each installment will feature 3 players at the final table, starting with the chip leader and moving to the short stack. I’ve listed their current odds from various sources as well as a short bio. There is plenty of information below, feel free to leave a comment if you agree or disagree.

2009 November Nine Handicapping Part 2
2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 3

2009 November Nine Handicapping Part 1 is after the jump.

2009 November Nine chip counts:

Darvin Moon – 58,930,000
Eric Buchman – 34,800,000
Steven Begleiter – 29,885,000
Jeff Shulman = 19,580,000
Joe Cada – 13,215,000
Kevin Schaffel – 12,390,000
Phil Ivey – 9,765,000
Antoine Saout – 9,500,000
James Akenhead – 6,800,000

Darvin Moon – Seat 1 – 58,930,000 chips (M = 93.54)
Current odds from 17/10 to 3/1

The gentleman from Maryland comes to the final table with a massive chip lead over the rest of the other 8 players. A huge chunk of them coming in the form a “gift” from Billy Kopp. The hand I am looking forward to the most during the broadcast. Moon already had the chip lead, this hand just put the word “massive” in front of it.

There were a stories going around that the trip to Vegas was his first time on a plane, that his only poker playing experience involved playing charity games at the local VFW, that he never once played online and had no desire to do that. He wasn’t going to take any sponsorship money, coaching offers, or press/promotions. Naturally some things were true and others were just stories being passed around outside the Poker Kitchen.

It seems he’s going to keep with the “no sponsor” stance but he’s already talking to the press. You have to like the brutal honesty when he tells the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette during an interview.

“I’m not all that good,” he insists in a slow drawl that just might make you let your guard down. “I’m just lucky and got the good cards. And when I got the best cards, somebody always seemed to have the cards just a little bit worse than I had, and I won big pots.”

Then again just this week to J. Freedom du Lac of the Washington Post.

“I really believe all eight of my opponents are better than I am. How can’t I believe that? They all have more experience than I do. I play three nights every two weeks at little tournaments like this (local Elks Club tournament).”

Here is what our poker handicappers have to say about Darvin Moon’s chances:

From Spaceman:

Not since Jamie Gold in 2006 has a final table chip leader come in with such a huge percentage (in this case, 30%) of the chips in play. And much like Jamie Gold, those chips have come Moon’s way thanks to an incredible run of cards; Moon will even tell you that himself. If you add on top of this the fact that Moon is an amateur who says that he’s not even the best player in the Elks Lodge tournaments he plays back home in western Maryland, it’s clear that what needs to happen for Moon to win this tournament is for him to continue to be clobbered over the head with the deck.

Luckily for Moon, it doesn’t have to be a constant clobbering; with an M near 100 as the final table begins he has more than enough room to lose a few substantial pots and still be in the hunt, especially if he were to do so in the process of doubling up one of the short stacks at the table. It’s hard to say how a run of a few bad hands might affect him in terms of emotional stability at the table, though one has to think that if the short stack he doubled were Phil Ivey he might have a little bit of fear struck into his heart.

Moon’s seat at the table is going to be a factor as well. Jeff Shulman (19,580,000) and Antoine Saout (9,500,000) are the two players on his right who he’ll be facing if he decides to give action out of his blinds; a few bad calls out of position against Shulman could quickly deplete his stack, while any urge to try and take out the Frenchman on the short stack could go badly wrong if Moon’s read of Saout’s strength is off at all. Meanwhile, Saout’s fellow short stacks James Akenhead and Phil Ivey are to his direct left, giving them the opportunity to exert some serious pressure on Moon if he decides to get frisky in position. Given that chips usually flow to the left in a typical poker game, one or two serious missteps might be all it would take to sink Moon’s chances of winning.

Moon does have one big advantage: he’s a true amateur who’s gone back to his day job during the break from July to November, refusing sponsorship and coaching offers. If anyone at the table is going to have a clear mind and a lack of outside pressure on him, it’s Moon.

All told, I’d place Darvin Moon’s chances at about 9/2.

From Riggstad:

When I looked at this final table, it was hard to avoid looking at the “names” and researching who was who in poker and what their accomplishments were to date. When asked by the casual fan, “Are there any pros at the table?”, the first answer given was of course, Phil Ivey. I am usually stopped right there, and asked “who holds the chip lead?”. This brings us to Darvin Moon. In his own words, he was crushing the deck during the whole tournament. As it reads above, he was on a super rush. Getting monster hands that not only held up against his opponents, but at times where his opponents actually had the right to go in against him. One could say that he was just unbeatable. The question becomes, will the time off steal his “Mojo”? As much as his run to the final table was due in part to this “rush”, it still needs to be said that at some point, he actually played some serious poker. No one gets through a gabillion people by luck sacking the whole way through.

Again, as my counterpart pointed out, Darvin has the distinct advantage of not having any pressure on him to perform. Being the Elks Club player he is, no one is going to be disappointed by him going out early. Squandering his chip lead will bring the head shakers to the surface, but it’s not like he has industry expectations like an Ivey or Shulman might have. Given that distinct advantage, he will be hard to bluff. The bottom line is, if he has a hand, he’s most likely going to play it. Second nuts, or not. Of course this could be a benefit to other players if they get hot, and eat away at his stack quickly. The fact that he has 30% of the chips on the table, and my assumption that he will continue to play his standard game and not be able to get pushed around will give Darvin the best, or worst chance at winning this tournament. His competition though are adept and finding soft spots and exploiting edges. I just think he will be outmatched. Because of that assumption, I will set the chip leader as an underdog and place the money line for Darvin at +350.

Eric Buchman – Seat 6 – 34,800,000 chips (M = 55.24)
Currents odds from 3/1 to 9/2

Buchman is an East Coast poker player who already had a taste of glory earlier in the 2009 World Series of Poker. He made the final table of the Omaha and Stud Hi/Lo tournament, finishing 6th place in the tournament which would see Phil Ivey win his second bracelet of the series. His second career final table was stacked besides Ivey, with Carlos Mortensen (3rd), Dutch Boyd (4th), and Jon “Pearljammer” Turner (5th). With over $1,000,000 already in his pocket for his November Nine appearance, this will more than double his career tournament earnings.

Buchman spends most of his time playing cash games on the East Coast, only occasionally making his way west to the poker rooms of Las Vegas. This is his 10th cash in a WSOP event and his 3rd career WSOP final table, his best finish was 2nd in 2006 Event #4. His resume shows an impressive mix in his earnings, Stud and Omaha variations as well as both Limit and No Limit Hold’em scores. As far as how he got to this point in the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event, he told the world via an ESPN Chat session that he was all-in and behind several times:

“There were three times when I was all in and behind and managed to suck out and win those three hands. There were probably another handful of times where I was all in and ahead and my hand held up.”

Buchman will resume play sitting with a second place chip stack with 3rd place Steven Begleiter to his right and Joe Cada to his left.

Here is what our poker handicappers have to say about Eric Buchman’s chances:

From Spaceman:

Buchman is one of the more accomplished players in this field, having already racked up nearly $1 million in tournament winnings before making the November Nine. His top finishes on a tournament resume that stretches back to 2002 include a win in the 2004 New England Poker Classic at Foxwoods (worth $275,400), a runner-up finish in a 2006 WSOP limit hold’em event ($174,938), and another runner-up finish in a 2007 WSOP Circuit main event in Atlantic City ($208,666). He has two previous WSOP final tables to his credit and has also made deep runs in four big WPT main events, finishing between 40th and 22nd place in each of them.

Obviously Buchman has proven himself to be a dangerous hold’em player whether the game is limit or no-limit, but he also has significant cashes in Omaha Hi/Lo, Stud Hi/Lo, and O8/Stud-8 split events at the WSOP. That displays the kind of overall poker skill that leads to championships. In addition, his proficiency at limit hold’em in particular means he has the same skill set that has made limit hold’em champs like Daniel Negreanu and Erick Lindgren so successful in these big no-limit tournaments.

When it comes to position at the table, Buchman’s situation is somewhat similar to Moon’s. He has two short stacks, Joe Cada (13,215,000) and Antoine Saout (9,500,000), directly to his left, meaning they’ll have plenty of opportunity to exert pressure on any late-position moves that he decides to make. However, Buchman’s skill should make him a little less vulnerable than Moon to making missteps in reading whether such moves are legitimate. On Buchman’s right will be two players who have been running pretty hot since the table broke in July, Steven Begleiter (29,885,000) and Kevin Schaffel (12,390,000). Given his experience and skill advantage, I’d think he would be looking for chances to see cheap flops against both of these guys with speculative hands that could lead to big pots, especially in blind-vs.-blind confrontations with the similarly deep-stacked Begleiter; in fact, I think that run-ins between these two could make for some of the most interesting hands at the final table.

Simply put, Buchman is going to be a major obstacle for anyone who thinks they can run through him. He won’t be easily trapped, and on the flip side he’ll be more than capable of setting his own traps. And much like the most celebrated player at the table, Phil Ivey, Buchman is capable of shifting gears and adjusting his playing style to the situation he faces at any given time. Couple that with a big stack and you’ve got a man who’s primed to win this tournament.

Overall, I’d put Buchman’s chances at about 4/1.

From Riggstad:

Do some research on Buchman and what you will find reading between the lines is that he is a player of exceptional skill and experience. Eric has 5 final tables in his poker repertoire, as far back as 2002 which proves that he has plenty of final table experience. Winning once and coming in second twice means he knows how to close as well. All signs point to him as being a very large threat to everyone at the table. That and his chip stack, second to only Darvin, should be very worrisome to all others at the table. Buchman has a lot of experience and success in all forms of poker, which points to his abilities to exploit others, overcome beats, and generally be comfortable against any and all opponents during his push to obtain the most coveted bracelet in all of poker.

Now, all of the above points to excellent things for Eric and his chances for taking this whole thing down. What hasn’t been considered is how that experience will hurt his chances. That is to say, how much experience do the others at the table have playing with him? How much do the others know about his tendencies and how will they be able to exploit them? Sitting between x and y is all good for experienced players knowing when to squeeze, bluff, and 4 bet light, but the best players in the world also know their opponents. The largest consideration will be Eric’s mindset. Sure, he has a ton of experience and success, all dating back to 2002. That’s 7 years however of recorded playing time with a million in wins. One could ask “That’s all?”. I would (will) assume that this man is probably really wanting this tournament in the worst way. We’ve all played tournaments (whether its a casino daily, a home game, or a World Championship event) in a mindset where we convince ourselves we have to win. How does that effect your game? Well, with what’s at stake for Buchman, I’m guessing he’s going to have to overcome some personal mental demons. I would expect him to start out fast and furious. One bad beat however, could send him in to a very depressive state that will effect his game for the worse. Or maybe it won’t. All things considered I will make him a favorite and place his money line at +300.

Steven Begleiter – Seat 5 – 29,885,000 chips (M = 47.44)
Current odds from 4/1 to 6/1

Steven Begleiter won his way into the 2009 World series of Poker Main Event in nearly the same fashion as our chip leader Darvin Moon. Begleiter earned the $10,000 entry fee by winning a local poker league tournament, that is where the comparisons end. While our chip leader is an unknown from the panhandle of Maryland, Begleiter spent nearly 25 years as a top investment bank executive. He led the corporate strategy team at Bear Stearns before the 75 year old company collapsed under the weight of “excessive leverage and large bets on subprime mortgage bonds”.

During his ESPN Chat session, he was asked “How is finance and poker similar?”

“Well, they are similar in that you have to make decisions on partial yet incomplete data. Sometimes the situations call for mathematical analysis and sometimes they call for gut feel, and sometimes a mix. In poker, you get feedback and results instantaneously while in business sometimes it takes years to find out.”

Before this run at the Main Event, Steven Begleiter was not sporting much of a poker resume but that will change no matter his finish at the final table. Begleiter recently signed on as a member of Team Full Tilt and will start third in chips with the always dangerous Phil Ivey to his right. His thoughts on that:

“There are very few players in the world who would say they want Phil Ivey on their left, despite how many chips he has and I am not one of them. Having said that, Eric Buchman is a very accomplished player. I expect great difficulty in dealing with his large stack on my left.”

Another East Coast grinder as a member of the November Nine, here is what our poker handicappers have to say about Steven Begleiter’s chances:\

From Spaceman:

Steven Begleiter might not be a professional poker player, but he has been playing the game all his life. He made his way to the Main Event through a home poker league with a lineup of other intelligent, enthusiastic amateur poker players, which speaks well of his abilities at the table. His professional background in the world of finance – he was the head of corporate strategy at Bear Stearns – also gives him a solid insight into the calculation of risk that translates well into a game that’s all about risk. Of all the amateur players at the table, I’d expect Begleiter to make the fewest mistakes when it comes to chasing draws and making big calls, but at the end of the day he is still an amateur.

Begleiter has mostly been working his day job during his time off from the Main Event, but he managed to squeeze in enough poker time to finish in 9th place at the Legends of Poker main event in Los Angeles this August. That’s his only other career cash outside of the big one that we’re looking at right now, but it’s evidence that he’s been thinking very clearly at the poker table since this summer. However, he has entered a few other events in the meantime without any cashes, so it’s difficult to know whether that mindset will carry over once the bright lights and cameras turn on at the Rio in November.

On Begleiter’s direct left at the final table will be Eric Buchman (34,800,000) and Joe Cada (13,215,000). Given that they’re all stacked enough to see some flops I would expect that Begleiter would be eager to exert some pressure on the button, and as I mentioned above I think that the blind-vs.-blind confrontations between him and Buchman could make for some of the most interesting hands at the table. Should that be the case, the outcome of those hands will go a long way toward determining Begleiter’s chances in this event. And since Buchman has the bigger stack of the two of them, an early loss for Begleiter would knock him back down the ranks and put him in jeopardy of exiting the tournament much lower than his starting stack would seem to indicate.

On Begleiter’s right, meanwhile, are Kevin Schaffel (12,390,000) and Phil Ivey (9,765,000). Schaffel finished in second place in that same Legends of Poker tournament, so he and Begleiter have seen a bit of each other at the tables, but on balance Begleiter’s position ought to give him the best of their confrontations. When it comes to Ivey, though, Begleiter will have to be wary of making any ill-timed moves, as doubling Ivey up would make him a contender again and the last thing anybody wants is the world’s most dangerous player holding a big stack on the button when they’re in the big blind.

Overall, I would place Begleiter’s chances at about 6/1.

From Riggstad:

Begleiter to me could be the most dangerous player in the field. What’s that you ask? “An amateur being the biggest threat?” Am I crazy, or stupid? Well let’s consider this guy for a minute. One, he has the third largest chip stack at the table. Secondly he has made a living underwriting risk as the head of corporate strategy at Bear Stearns, which tells me that he is a very analytical, thinking player. OK, big assumption, but when you don’t have much else to go on, you look to personal accomplishments. I’m sure Head of Corporate Strategy at a fortune 100 bank didn’t only pay 120k a year and have a pre requisite of a bachelors degree in economics. Given his life accomplishments to date, and what he has achieved so far in his poker playing life (final table of the 2009 WSOP), I’m going to assume that among all the players at the table, he most likely has the biggest desire to win coupled with the thought that anything else doesn’t really matter. My point is, I believe that Steve will play this as a win or lose proposition. With no pressure on him at all, he’s likely to take the most aggressive line given the field and what’s at stake. Sure, I said Moon has zero pressure as well, but he is going to want to move up the money ladder. The more money he wins the happier he is going to be. I don’t think Begleiter will be happier if he places third instead of 9th. There is no 9th through 2nd place for Begleiter.

Given that assumption, he will be most likely to play the hardest. His risk assessment will be based wholly on the complete outcome of the event, not any individual hand. His ability to play, the lack of experience others at the table have of him, and his chip stack tell me he should be a favorite. But with everything I have written above, he is still in unknown territory. Given a 90,000 foot view, my assumption that he will play hard and fast might get him into trouble, and lead to an early exit. November will tell. My line on this player will fall purely on details I don’t have. The old adage, “The devil is in the details” holds true for setting the line on this guy. Given normal probable outcomes I think, if my assumptions are right, that Steve is a favorite. I will set his line at +600.

Post from: Poker From The Rail

2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 1

Related posts:

1. 2009 World Series of Poker – November Nine Set
2. 2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 2
3. 2009 World Series of Poker November Nine Part 3

FTOPS XI

Here are your first three FTOPS XI winners.

Event #1 – No Limit Hold’em – muckducks
Event #2 – Pot Limit Omaha/8 – ramagen
Event #3 – Stud Hi – AsMetzmagnyAs

Now we have a timely guest post from Riggstad that takes a look at dealing with home distractions while playing in the FTOPS events. Luckily for me I will not have these kinds of things to deal with, at most I have a puppy that needs occasional attention.

FTOPS Distractions
by Riggstad

With FTOPS upon us, I thought I would take this time to recount a story that may or may not help you prepare for a good run in any of the events you might have qualified, or flat out are buying your way into.

See the FTOPS events are the major league of online poker. There is a ton of money to be won in these events, and anyone can get in. Full Tilt does a spectacular job with this series, providing everyone an opportunity regardless of the size of their bankroll. You can even satellite in for points to some of the bigger events with payouts in the hundreds of thousands.

With that being said, I think it’s important to understand, and take full advantage of every opportunity to its fullest. This is serious stuff here. The average guy who has about $150 in their online account could get a serious bump to the tens of thousands if they play their cards right. No pun intended.

Given the enormity of such an opportunity, I think it’s important to state the obvious. I played my first FTOPS in May of 2007. I had played about 5 of those events, qualifying for all of them via $26 and $75 satellites. The first one was the $400 NLHE. I hadn’t taken it very seriously, and in fact almost forgot about it. By the time I had logged on, the tournament was 2 levels in, and I was not in a good mindset to play.

There were distractions from the kids, and more pressing was the pressure from the wife to help with those kids. I just wasn’t prepared to play in that event, even if I had remembered. I went out in short order in that tournament deciding to over shove AK and quickly ran into Aces.

So the next event, I decided to prepare and take everything into consideration. Amount of time it would take to play, my surroundings, including the kids, the wife, and other possible distractions. I decided that the $1500 buy in NLHE event would be the one. It started at 8:30pm. The wife had started back to work part time for a little sanity from the 4 kids, and I knew she would be working that night. That would be one less distraction.

The next distraction would be the kids. They were all under 8 years of age at that time, and were all in bed asleep by 8pm on any given night. I never had an issue with any of them. So I believed that would take care of distraction number 2.

The final distraction would be the constant IM’s I would be getting from friends who knew I would be playing. That would be an easy one. Don’t turn on instant messenger. I got the kids off to bed and settled into the couch at around 8:15, turned off the TV, and started to prepare myself for a successful run. I did turn on the IM to tell everyone that I would not be available. No need to piss anyone off who might have felt they had a little equity in my performance.

So here I am. All settled in, ready to play, waiting for the cards to fly. The first hands were dealt, and I let out a comfortable sigh as I folded my 9 5 off thinking this would be a nice relaxing environment to do my best.

Then it happened.

The 2 year old (female) starts screaming at the top of her lungs about how she wants apple juice… So apple juice it is. I timed the hands out perfectly to be able to run into the kitchen, obtain a sippy cup, fill it with 100% apple juice, run up the stairs, throw it into her crib, and rush back down the stairs in time for the next hand (where I would be happy enough to see AA)… Only something got in the way…

The apple juice wasn’t enough. She wanted water, and then an actual apple. Trying to negotiate with a 2 year old, in a dark room, at 9:20 pm, is near impossible. I tried the drill instructor style “GO TO BED” with the mean look on my face which only resulted in more tears… I submitted to the actual apple request, but she didn’t quite get that I couldn’t pull it out of my butt, and had to actually leave the room to fetch it, which made the screams worse than the sounds coming from a possum trapped in a snare.

As I rushed out of the room past the infants (male) room, I hear him screaming. I decide to attend to him later and get the apple and see if I can get a hand in between the travel. That’s when I noticed the clock was on me with AA (again). As I dive into the couch to press raise, the timer counts down to zero and the big blue tab that says “I’m Back” pops up. (FOOK)

I obtain the apple and run back up the stairs to an ever increasing screaming match between two opponents who don’t even know that they are competing. The 8 year old (female) looks out her door, looking exactly like my wife with an expression of scorn and says “what are you doing?, Laney is crying?” (as if I didn’t already know that). I basically tell her to shut up and get back in bed, and step sideways into Laney’s room with the apple as if it were the answer to all her prayers. TO NO AVAIL! Mini wife is now inside the offenders room with arms crossed and tapping her foot… I decide to recruit her for help by saying, “Hey C, take Laney into my room and sleep with her on my bed”… She obliges and off they go. As they pass the boys room, she states the obvious that he is crying…

I grab him, and just reside myself to the fact that he will now be playing the tourney with me, on the couch, hopelessly falling asleep in my arms.

By the time I get back down stairs, it is quite obvious that I have missed about 20 minutes of playing time. I never did turn off the IM and two boxes are up with frantic posts of “WHERE ARE YOU”, and “DID YOU LOSE YOUR CONNECTION?” and other stupid friggin’ questions.

I fold for the next 30 minutes, completely card dead, while the boy falls asleep again. All the while I hear the other two jumping rope above my head.

Break comes and I decide to put the boy back in his crib, and relegate the other two back to their own quarters. While doing so, the boy wakes back up, again with shrieks that would crack the plate glass in any local church. I grab him back up and try to rock him to sleep without success.

I don’t make it back before the break ends, and I’m down to just over 1K. The IM’s keep coming with questions of why am I not there, what is going on?, how do you blow this off like it’s a $50 tourney, and so on… which only enrages me more. I’m on the brink of needing a new laptop because I can only respond with one hand (the other is holding the boy) and I am pounding the keyboard with the fervor of a steel driving man.

I make some successful moves to get back up to a little over 3k. We are down to about 1500 players from 2551, and I pick up AsKs pre flop where I raise the pot a standard 3x to about 1200. It folds around to the BB who flats. I don’t know why I didn’t shove with a short stack. The flop comes Ts 5s 5c. He checks, I shove, and he calls with 57o. I brick, and go home feeling very frustrated and unsatisfied.

Now, I know this story is extreme, and probably not indicative of everyone’s environment. But the point is that I took for granted my normal circumstances. I figured that the kids would be fast asleep. There were never any problems before so why would there be any tonight? The wife would be working, so everything would be conducive to a perfect playing environment, allowing me to concentrate and perform optimally.

These events are very important and shouldn’t be taken lightly. You are taking a shot at a lot of money. Don’t take anything for granted. Everything will affect your performance.

Consider everything, and good luck in your quest for an FTOPS win!

Post from: Poker From The Rail

Guest Post – Riggstad – FTOPS distractions

Related posts:

1. Bloggers On The Rail – Guest Post: Riggstad
2. Guest Post – Drizztdj – Chatting for Profit
3. Guest Post from Drizztjd – Tournament or Cash?

Live Tournament Chops
by Riggstad

If you’ve ever played a tournament in a live setting and made it to the last few players, chances are you were involved with a chop. No? What are chops you say? You don’t know? Well, simply stated, a chop is when the remaining players take the entire prize pool not already awarded, and divide it between those players in an equitable way agreed upon by all those involved. Basically, you’re guaranteeing yourself, and everyone else, a better payoff.

I know, I know, all of you out there saying, “I would never chop!” Fact is, you will. What usually escapes most people is how the environment of the tournament progresses. Usually you’ve been playing for an extended amount of time. You’ve avoided running AA into KK, you’ve won races. You have survived all-ins, suck-outs, and bad beats. You are nearing the end of the tournament and are exhausted. You have spoken to friends on the cell about the possibilities of what might be if you happen to win that first-place prize of $250k, after only buying in for $1k.

But what inevitably happens is somewhere along the way, someone, at some point, will mention chop. Usually it starts at around 50 players left. It might seem like a joke, or that he is being funny, but make no mistake. He probably isn’t. Somewhere around 20 left the talks get serious. It won’t happen, but there are a few guys talking seriously about it. They gather allies. They form a frontal attack and try to show how much sense it makes to at least consider a chop. It wears both mentally, and physically on those opposed, and the group in favor notices that. They are relentless. All the while people are being eliminated. And by the time it gets to the final table, you are ready to listen to a serious offer.

It’s not a question of IF, but when you will chop. But what I want to explain in this post is how they are made, more so then why or when to determine if they should be made. I’ll save that for another post.

Each states gaming commission has rules about Casinos being involved with deal making. For the most part, they are not allowed to be involved. Most casinos will give you one shot to work a deal. Maybe they will give you a 15 minute break or so to discuss your business, but after that, play continues. Meaning they will continue to run the clock. They will make you post your blinds and antes, and they will not have anything to do with awarding prize money based on your deal. They will make everyone sign for whichever place they go out in. There is no stoppage of play once the deal is made. Most will make you finish the tournament, even if it entails shoving all in between the two players who are supposed to win, and go out in the next spot. Once everyone has signed out in their agreed upon places and the tournament is officially over, each player will go collect their prize money, THEN split it up as the deal was made, usually in the back of the poker room.

Some of the ways I have seen this happen is where the chip leader decides to take second-place money and sign for 5th, and the other players, based on chip stacks take a cut according to those sizes. Another way is where the players decide at some point to guarantee everyone a certain level of money. This is a more confusing way of doing things, but it allows at least the play of the tournament to move forward, and leaves a portion of the prize pool still up for grabs for the eventual winner. In the least, it keeps the competition alive.

For example: If the prize pool is lets say 100k, and there are 5 players left, someone may suggest that each player is guaranteed 15k. That would leave an additional $25k leftover. The chip leader at that point may have an additional deal where he is guaranteed 30k and the next largest stack at 20k, and everyone else at 15k. The additional money (5k) would go to the eventual winner. What’s important to remember is that everything is negotiable, and should be negotiated before the entire deal is agreed upon.

What else is there? Well, maybe there is a bracelet to be awarded. The dealer toke from each stack. The player taking the least amount of money might ask that he is exempt from paying that toke, and putting it on another player, etc.

One last thing, but ultimately is the most important thing in chops, and usually the one thing that determines how smoothly these negotiations go is the tax implication.

Who wants to earn 15k and sign for a first place prize of 100k? If that was the case you would lose money. The casinos have to issue you a tax form that states how much they pay you. As I stated before they will not get involved with deal making and if you sign for first, they will issue you a tax form for that amount, regardless if they know you took less. The IRS also makes them take 25% out of any winnings over $5k. This may be good or bad, depending on your own personal tax bracket. Think of it as withholding. You may be entitled to a return. But the IRS has also made provisions for chops as well. Not specifically, but it works out in your favor.

Form 5750 enables you to claim exactly what you earned from any tournament, regardless of what the Casino reports. This includes any payments to backers that you might have had. So let’s say you signed for 2nd place, which awarded $75k. However, you chopped and only made $20k. Plus you had a backer and had to give him his cut of 50%. You really only netted $10k (minus your buy-in) and are on the hook for $75k as far as the IRS is concerned. This form will allow you to claim the $10k alone, but you will need help. You will need the signatures of other players, your backer, and an official witness from the tournament floor.

This seems like a very complicated process, and it is. It gets a little convoluted when you are on the 18th hour of day three and just want to get your money and go home. Be careful, and make sure that everything works out the way the deal was originally set. Take measures to understand everything that goes into a deal, and be clear of what is being offered and what you want.

We play and love this game for the competition, the excitement, the feeling of accomplishment, the money! But as in life, anything and everything that involves money should be treated like a business. These are some of the things that you need to be aware of before playing in poker tournaments.

Post from: Poker From The Rail

Bloggers On The Rail – Guest Post: Riggstad

Related posts:

1. Bloggers On The Rail – Guest Post: HighOnPoker
2. Bloggers On The Rail – Guest Post: Tuscaloosa Johnny
3. Guest Post – Riggstad – FTOPS distractions